A Study Of Embodied Carbon Flows And Forecasting In Industrial Sectors From An Input-output Network Perspective

Energy issues as well as environmental issues are currently the focus of attention around the world.China has long been the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide,and its energy consumption structure is still dominated by fossil energy.As China’s share of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions continues to rise,China has assumed an important international responsibility for carbon emission reduction.The industrial sector of the national economy plays a key role in the "carbon peaking and carbon neutral" strategy.To avoid the limitations of the traditional producer responsibility-based carbon accounting,this paper accounts for the embodied carbon emissions of China’s industrial sector from the perspective of demand.At the same time,an improved input-output analysis method is used to construct a network of embodied carbon flows of industrial sectors during 2002-2018,which excludes the influence of domestic carbon emissions of foreign imports,thus avoiding overestimation of carbon emission flows between sectors.The complex network analysis model is able to visualize the carbon emission flows between sectors in order to explore the deep-seated linkages between industries.Finally,the double proportional balance method is combined with a nonlinear autoregressive neural network model to forecast the carbon emission flow structure of industrial sectors in China,and the scenario analysis of carbon emission forecast results is combined with energy policy planning.The research results show that:(1)carbon emissions from key line sectors account for more than fifty percent of total carbon emissions,so key sectors play a key role in energy conservation and emission reduction strategies.The imbalance between sectoral embodied carbon emissions and direct carbon emissions is widespread.Sectors with low direct carbon emissions and high implicit carbon emissions,such as construction,should receive more attention.(2)The high correlation and aggregation of embodied carbon flow networks provide a basis for achieving synergistic emission reduction among industries.(3)The electricity and heat supply industry is the largest carbon emission supply sector,the construction industry is the largest recipient sector,and the chemical,non-metallic products,and metallurgical industries have obvious bridging roles in the carbon emission stream network work.Determining the key sectors with different positioning in the industry chain provides a theoretical basis for the scientific formulation of carbon emission reduction policies.(4)The results of the scenario analysis of carbon emission projections show that,under the premise of maintaining the current economic growth rate,the total direct carbon emission intensity of China’s industrial sectors will be reduced by about 25%,and the embodied carbon emission intensity will be reduced by about30%,which exceeds the carbon emission reduction task of the 14 th Five-Year Plan.The embodied carbon flow forecast results show that the structure of the embodied carbon flow network does not change significantly,but the radiation effect of power and other related industries on other industries is further increased,and the proportion of power energy consumption is further increased,and the energy consumption structure of China is further optimized.