Research On Carbon Emissions Rebound Effect Of China's Manufacturing

In the past 30 years,China's economic growth rate has attracted worldwide attention.1978-2009 it achieved a the brilliant achievement of average economic growth rate of over 9%.Manufacturing is the main part of China' s economy currently,and it is an important role for our country's economic growth.However,we can not ignore environmental pollution problems hidden behind economic growth when looking back the brilliant.Extensive mode of economic growth has been the result of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere of CO2,it also affected the quality of our economic development seriously.Manufacture industry situation is particularly serious about the above phenomenon.For these reasons,the Chinese government on the Chinese government offered a target of to 2020 carbon emissions per unit of GDP declined 40-45%compared to 2005 at the Copenhagen conference.To do this we need to improve the energy efficiency of our whole economy especially the energy efficiency of energy-intensive industries.This article studies manufacturing sector Carbon rebound effect based on technological progress and structural adjustment,with a view to provide some theoretical basis for China's manufacturing industry achieving emission reduction target.Firstly,this paper reviews related theories of energy carbon emissions,and divides manufacturing industry into labor-intensive,capital-intensive,technology-intensive and resource-intensive four industry based on the factor intensity of 28 manufacturing sub-sectors.Measured energy carbon emissions and carbon intensity of manufacturing industry in the case of 1999-2012 and made the corresponding analysis.Secondly,the estimating model of the rebound effect has been improved.The model makes a further decomposition according to the factors of affecting energy efficiency,and becomes a new model based on technological progress and structural adjustment.Then,this paper established a parametric generalized exogenous technical progress calculation model,application diversity regression method based on this,measure out a study of labor,capital,output flexibility and generalized rate of technological progress of China' s manufacturing industry during the period.The paper estimates China' s manufacturing industry rebound effect of generalized technological progress combined with the carbon intensity and industrial output data of 1999-2012.The paper estimates the China' s manufacturing rebound effect during the period based on this paper established rebound effect model of technological progress and structural adjustment,and makes the corresponding analysis.Finally,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy and recommendations of carbon emissions from technological progress,structural adjustment and the government's macro-control aspect.