The Evolution Process And Influencing Factors Of China’s Industrial Carbon Unlock

As 2016 is the first year of the 13 th Five-Year Plan period,China is facing double pressures of industrial growth and emission reduction.Since the reform and opening up,China has gradually formed a heavy chemical industry-based industrial structure and fossil energy-based energy structure,which resulted in high levels of carbon emissions.The transformation of industrial production with low carbon still meet with great difficulties.Thought in 2015,China has achieved 1.5% reduction in carbon emissions,it’s still not optimistic from the total point of view.The industrial sector has been the large energy consumption in China,which is accounting for more than 2/3 of the total consumption.In 2005,the industrial sector’s carbon emissions was 270096.72 million tons,and it up to 395968.64 million tons in 2014.Economic development is accompanied by high carbonization.It can be said that China’s industrial development has been caught in the “Carbon Lock-in”.Therefore,researching on how to break through the carbon lock-in,and accelerate the process of industrial carbon unlocking,has a crucial impact on the low-carbon transformation of industries and the completion of China’s emission reduction targets,also is the key to developing low-carbon economy.In addition,China has a vast territory,the level of economic development and resource endowment in each region is quite different,the states of carbon unlocking are not the same,it can be better adapted to local conditions to seek carbon unlock strategy to use the province as the research objects.Based on the data collection and calculation,this paper takes the trend analysis-influencing factors-the countermeasures as the main line,taking 2005 to 2014 as the time node and 30 provinces as the research objects.Firstly,this paper introduces the research background and significance of the research,making a literature review and combing the relevant theoretical basis for the following analysis.Then,this paper makes a detailed analysis on the current situation and characteristics of carbon emissions in China from three aspects.On this basis and by using the decoupling theory,this paper quantitatively estimates the industrial carbon unlocking effect of 30 provinces in China,and divides them into 3 categories according to the results.Then the paper introduces the econometric analysis method for further exploration.Based on the STIRPAT panel data model,the influencing factors of carbon unlocking factors in nationwide and sub-regions were analyzed from the aspects of economic scale technological progress and energy structure.Countermeasures and suggestions are made based on the empirical results.Through the research and analysis,this paper has the following conclusions:(1)According to the economic development and situation of carbon unlocking,30 provinces can be roughly divided into three regions:high level of economic development and the status are mostly unlocked,including Beijing and other 5 provinces,which indicates the high quality of the economic development;the economy is still in the rapid development stage and the carbon unlock state fluctuates greatly,including Shanxi and other 10 provinces,suffering a great pressure of carbon emission reduction;the economy is still in the rapid development stage and the unlock state is relatively stable,including Hebei and other 12 provinces,mostly for economic growth and carbon emissions increase.(2)As the empirical aspects of influencing factors,from the national perspective,the energy consumption structure is the main driving force of industrial carbon emission intensity,while the negative effects of energy efficiency,output per worker and R&D investment proportion on the carbon emission intensity decreased in turn.From the regional perspective,the influences of the explanatory variables are similar to that of the whole country.Specifically we notice that,the R&D proportion of region III has a positive correlation with carbon emissions intensity which is contrary to expectation,one possible explanation is that the R&D investment is mainly uses in the promotion of the industrial growth.Finally,based on the empirical results,recommendations of promoting low-carbon and achieving carbon unlock have been made from three points of view.