Carbon Emission Of Power Industry Prediction Research Based On System Dynamics

Along with the rapid development of economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standard,the energy consumption of each country has been increasing gradually.The problems of environment deterioration,energy depletion and climate warming caused by energy use have attracted worldwide attention.China as the largest developing country in the world,is also the largest energy consumer and the country with the largest CO2 emission in the world,facing enormous pressure of energy saving and emission reduction.The power industry,as one of the largest sectors in the national economy,discharges 39% of the total emissions.Therefore,the analysis and forecast of carbon emissions in the power industry is of great significance to the development of low-carbon economy,the establishment of low-power,low-pollution and low-emission power development model and the realization of China's energy-saving and emission reduction.The article first to the calculation of carbon emission and the influence factors if carbon emissions are analyzed and formulated the model of carbon emission factor decomposition based on Logarithmic Mean Weight Divisia,made the quantitative analysis of the influence of energy structure,electric power structure,power generation coal consumption and so on the power industry carbon emission during the year of 1999 to 2013.And then uses the method of system dynamics modeling,based on the Vensim software,this paper established a system dynamics model of electric power industry and test the validity of the model,model system is divided into carbon emissions carbon energy subsystem,carbon environment subsystem,carbon economy subsystem and population subsystem.After through the model is validated,Three scenarios of carbon emissions in the electric power industry carbon emission system were simulated: basic scenario,low-carbon scenario,enhance low-carbon scenario,The simulation results show that in basic scenario,the electric power industry in 2030 will reach10.2186 billion tons,in low-carbon scenario,the electric power industry in 2030 will reach 9.23496 billion tons,in enhance low-carbon scenario,he electric power industry in 2030 will reach8.34256 billion tons.Through simulation to predict the future economic development model,the thesis combines carbon system simulation result,based on the influence factors of electric power industry carbon social system.The reducing carbon emission ofsuggestions are given to reduce energy consumption,optimize energy structure,adjust energy structure,reduce coal consumption,increase investment in science and technology,and optimize industrial structure.