Evaluation And Path Selection Of Regionally Industrial Undertaking And Low-carbon Development

In this paper,we use the panel data from 1998 to 2015 in our country.First,we use super efficiency of SBM model to measure the economic and low-carbon development in our country and different areas under two perspectives which is ignoring the expected output and considering the expected output.second,we adopt the Malmquist index to dynamically decompose the comprehensive development of economy and low-carbon in China.Finally,by using long-term cointegration regression and short-term error correction model,we can study the influence of internationally and domestically industrial undertaking on impact on regional low-carbon development,then we use Granger causality test to do deep analysis.The results shows that:(1)Without considering carbon emissions,China's economic development appears rising trend,and there are significant differences among regions.Northeast China is in decline,the east of China goes up first and drop after,central region of China is relatively stable,which is in rising or falling during sample period,the west of China is in rising;Under the condition of considering expected output,China's low-carbon development appears rising trend.Northeast China goes up first and decrease after,the east of China goes up first and decline after slowly in stability,central region of China is in rising,but there are complex stage changes,the west of China is in slow rising;Comparing two situations,we can find China's industrial undertaking has been significant overvalued,the problem of virtually high efficiency is existed,and there are significant differences among regions.(2)According to the Malmquist index decomposition,China's traditional productivity increases gradually,the northeast,east,central region and west of China's traditional productivity are rising in two periods,however reasons caused the changes are significantly different;China's low-carbon productivity is in rising trend,four regions' low-carbon productivity is in rising gradually,but reasons caused the changes are significantly different;Comparing two situations,we can conclude China's productivity is significant overvalued as a whole,technological progress is a main cause which lead to this result,and technology-pursing is the secondary reason.(3)In long-term and short-term,there is a inverse relation between China's internationally industrial undertaking and low-carbon development,which explain there is dual effect of"pollution haven" between internationally and domestically industrial undertaking in our country.(4)Granger causality test shows that internationally industrial undertaking is the Granger reason of low-carbon development in China and the northeast,east,central region of China,not vice versa.However,they are two-way reason in the west of China;Domestically industrial undertaking is the Granger reason of low-carbon development in the northeast,west,central region of China,not vice versa.However,they are causal relationship in the east of China.Finally,according to different development situation,we can put forward targeted development path.