Research Of Model Of Accident Analysis Model For Complex System

The problem of safety has always been accompanied by the development of human history.With the increase of system complexity,the technological progress and the change of the nature of the accident,the traditional accident analysis method and the previous accident experience can not meet the current needs.The research on the accident model is imminent.On the basis of discussing the traditional accident analysis method,the accident analysis of complex system is studied from system theory,system analysis based on accident analysis method and system engineering.The complex system accident analysis model includes two factors: the causal factors of accidents and the hierarchical structure of factors.In this paper,11 cases of general causes of accidents are put forward by using STAMP model and system theory.The system is used to describe the accident system Analysis of ideas and methods.Through the Tianjin TEDA water plant research,the accident factors in detail.Using DEMATEL to determine the relationship between the accident factors,the use of ISM to divide the hierarchical structure of the accident factors,and then get the 11 causes of the accident caused by the accident analysis model.The qualitative analysis of the model is carried out from the hierarchical hierarchy.The quantitative analysis is used to compare the calculated center degree and the importance of the network nodes,and the weights are determined by the entropy method,so as to obtain the comprehensive ranking of the important factors of the accident factors.Through the research of Tianjin TEDA water plant,the integrated DEMATEL-ISM method was used to establish the urban water system accident analysis model,and the results were analyzed deeply.The government,enterprise and public cooperation were discussed by causal loop diagram and archetypes under the accident control measures.