Land is an essential material base,which is closely connected with humanbeing’s production and life.The healthy state of land ecosystem has a direct effect on the sustainable development of human society.However,in these years,with the quick growing of urbanization and industrialization,land use degree and strength are also increasing so that the problems of the global environmental safety have been becoming more and more serious.As a result,the importance of land ecological security gradually emerges.Land ecological security evaluation is of importance and basis indicator of land ecological security research,can systematically measure and comprehensively evaluate if the impact of mankind upon land and its ecological effects are good or bad,for the maintenance of regional land ecological security has important guiding significance.This paper is based on analysis of the land use status and ecological status in Daqing city,which is taken as the research area.It selected 20 indexes from land ecological pressure,state and response,which are helpful to set up land ecological security evaluation index system.What’s more,it combine the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the entropy weight method to determine the optimal combination weights.Based on the comprehensive index method,the land ecological security status of Daqing city was analyzed from 2004 to 2014,and the land ecological security status of urban areas and counties was analyzed in 2004,2009 and 2014 at three time points,and gray system theory modeling software GTM3.0 was used to construct Daqing land ecological security gray GM(1,1)model to forecast the land ecological security of Daqing city from 2015 to 2020.According to the results,the paper puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures to provide the scientific basis for improvement of land ecological security status and land ecological security level in Daqing city,and provide reference for future land use planning in Daqing city,and guide people to develop and utilize land reasonably.The results shows that:(1)From 2004-2014,the comprehensive value of land ecological security took on a fluctuated and rising trend.In the meantime,the land ecological security rose gradually from Grade Ⅰ(less safety level)to Grade Ⅳ(a safer level).The transformation process is:Ⅱ grade-Ⅲ grade-Ⅳ grade.(2)From 2004 to 2014,the land ecological security level of Daqing’s urban areas and counties increased gradually,and the land ecological security of Dabote Mongolian Autonomous county was the best,and the land ecological security of Zhaozhou county was the worst.(3)Although the comprehensive level of land ecological security in Daqing city showed a gradual rise trend from 2015 to 2020,the land ecological security level was in the 2nd grade(relatively safe level).Besides,the same land ecological security level changed from a lower value level to a higher one.(4)Based on the evaluation results,the countermeasures and suggestions for improving the land ecological security level of Daqing city are put forward from three aspects:cutting down the land ecological security pressure,holding and enhancing the land ecological security status and boosting the response ability of land ecological security,such as reducing the number of chemical fertilizers and pesticides,increasing the forest coverage rate,strengthening the governance of soil and water loss and so on. |