System Development Of Regional Carbon Governance Policy Simulation

Emissions reduction has become a global consensus.The release of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions(INDC)emission reduction targets,marking the global climate management and carbon governance has entered a new stage.The response and protection policies on climate change must be implemented at the regional level to ensure the achievement of the overall objectives.Therefore,under the objective of this goal,how to ensure the stability of regional economic growth and the relative fairness of economic development under the premise of efforts to control carbon emissions has become an important issue for the government to formulate regional sustainable development policies.This paper constructs a model system that includes three models:regional carbon demand assessment model,regional carbon quota and optimal emission reduction control model and regional carbon governance policy effect evaluation model,which is used to study the relationship between regional economic growth and carbon emission,and to simulate the policy effects of different carbon governance policies as well as how macroeconomic variables and environmental variables are in response to various shocks based on economic dynamics and computer simulation methods.Based on the model system constructed in this paper,the regional carbon governance policy simulation system is developed based on the development method of mixed programming of high level programming language and script.This system is developed based on C/S Infrastructure and Three-Tier Architecture(interface layer,business logic layer and data access layer).It adopts Visual Studio development platform and uses C#language as development language.GIS related function is based on ArcGIS Engine for secondary development.As the system needs a lot of scientific computing,the system uses the.NET and Matlab mixed method,and Accord.NET open source framework to achieve the required mathematical calculation of the system.Based on the system developed in this paper,the emission control rate under the steady growth of the region and the emission control rate under different carbon quota allocation schemes are simulated with the example of China,Japan,Russia and India.China has simulated what impact technology shocks and R&D investment shocks have on regional economies and the environment in the no policy scenario,the tax policy scenario,cap-and-trade scenario and emission intensity control scenario.Through the simulation and analysis,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Under the condition that the energy intensity and energy consumption structure evolved at a historical average evolution rate from 1990 to 2014 and the regional economy remained steady,China's carbon demand increases first and then decreases.The United States and Japan's carbon demand is showing a downward trend.Russia's carbon demand rises a little after 2015,and then decreases.India's carbon demand is showing a rapid upward trend,slowing down after 2040.(2)Under different carbon quota schemes,countries have a large gap in carbon quotas,and countries have different preferences for various quota schemes.Carbon sequestration as a constraint to reduce emissions will impact regional economy to some extent,and large emission reduction may lead to regional economic collapse.(3)The implementation of regional carbon governance policy will cause some economic losses,but also can improve the environment.Under the fully competitive market assumptions in this paper,tax policy and cap-and-trade policy is equivalent.Cap-and-trade policy can reduce the impact of regional economic fluctuations.