Design Of Multi-Source Risk Decision Of Enterprise Carbon Resource Allocation Under Cap And Trade Conditions

In response to global warming and other environmental issues,governments have taken various control measures.The Cap and Trade conditions(C&T conditions)that China has taken is one of the widely recognized instruments.How to make the allocation of resources under the C&T conditions has become a new and important challenge for manufacturing enterprises.Under the C&T conditions,the enterprises can get free government allocated initial emission quotas(EQ),and need to bear the mandatory obligation to reduce emissions intensity,the enterprises will face high penalties form the government if they fail to complete the mandatory emission reduction targets or do not take the necessary measures to offset their own emissions.Therefore,enterprises are mainly faced with three types of strategies:(1)Using allocated EQ to offset their own emissions,but,this will be lead to the risk of self-purification goals,due to do not do self-purification or extend the self-purification time;(2)purchasing additional EQ(by trading at the regional emission trade markets),but the risk is that the market price of EQ follows a random fluctuation,operation managers have to plan and acquire enough EQ to meet their production/service need,which unavoidably generates CO2 e emission;(3)reducing emission level via performing SP,such as the introduction of energy-saving equipment,but these projects are technically difficult,long cycle,and uncertain.Therefore,the enterprise operation and management become more complex,how to analyze and evaluate the above-mentioned multi-source risk,and make effective trade-off between multiple decisionmaking,which is an urgent problem to be solved for enterprise under the C&T conditions.In order to solve the above problems,this paper takes the carbon resource allocation process as the research object,use the rule-based expert systems and risk assessment method based on risk-matrix,design an effective multi-decision support system for multi-source risk analysis under the C&T conditions to help enterprises to carry out carbon resource allocation decision analysis.For this reason,based on more than three years of empirical studies,via frequent site-visits and extensive meetings with the participating manufacturers(CEOs,managers,engineers and operators)in Shenzhen area,we have accumulated a great deal of information and identified the behavioral characteristics of decision makers as they involved in the type of decision-making activities.we classify these decision-makers into two categories: proactive decision-maker and conservative decision-maker,this paper has designed the rulebased expert systems for the proactive decision-maker and conservative decision-maker,to implement complex analysis and decision-making logic and to simplify and effectively complete the pre-decision analysis before the risk analysis.Secondly,this paper designs multisource risk decision analysis subsystem to To effectively analyze and evaluate all kinds of risks and their impact and complete the risk of carbon resource allocation decision analysis.Finally,the related system designed in this paper is verified through the case study and the computer discrete simulation model that is based on the decision support system presented in this paper.The decision support systems designed in this paper can provide theoretical guidance and decision-making basis for enterprises to make risk decisions and effectively avoid relevant operational risks under the mandatory carbon emission reduction environment and uncertain,multi-cycle and dynamic conditions.At the same time,it will lay a theoretical foundation for developing the practical computer simulation experiment system which directly related to enterprise application in the future.