Multi-source Risk Decision Analysis Of Enterprise Production And Carbon Resource Allocation Based On Simulation

Global warming has seriously affected human life.Governments in various countries have taken measures to reduce the emission of greenhouse gas.Cap-and-Trade(C&T)is a mechanism implemented by Chinese government to reduce CO2 e emission as one of the widely recognized means.Carbon emission trade programs started since 2011 in China,seven cities/provinces were chosen as pilot areas,and carbon emission trade markets were established for commission.635 enterprises are under Cap-and-Trade in Shenzhen,and most of them are manufacturing enterprises.Control companies are faced with the problem of how to make rational allocation of carbon resources and maximize economic efficiency.It is also evident that participating companies face the challenge of various risks associated with the decisions of carbon resource planning(CRP)under Cap-and-Trade.The study focuses on manufacturing enterprises under Cap-and-Trade and make experimental design and multivariate statistical analysis of multi-source risks in the decision-making process of CRP from the perspective of corporate operations management to provide effective guidance for companies.In previous studies,the conceptual models on risk assessment and risk-based decision-making have been built and converted into discrete-event simulation models with Arena.This study performed an accurate and quantitative analysis of the multi-source risk with dynamic and highly uncertain characteristics,breaking the limitations of static,single-cycle analysis of risks with traditional analytical methods,revealing the dynamic uncertainty mechanism of complex system structure and related risks,thus providing a reference method for analyzing such complex problems.First,this study reviewed the results of previous team research.Second,the four system structures are compared and analyzed.Under multi-source risk conditions divided by the type of decision-maker and actions towards risk assessment to explore the impact of different system structures on system performance.Finally,four 2^2 factorial experiments were designed for different levels of multi-source risks in the decision-making process of CRP in the four system structures.The multivariate statistical analysis was used to reveal the basic characteristics of the relevant risk factors and their mechanisms of action,and effectively assess the impact of multi-source risk factors on relevant decisions and system performance.At the end of the paper,the comparative analysis of the system structures and the results of the factorial experiments are summarized,which provides reference suggestions for the rational allocation of carbon resources for companies,and proposes suggestions for improvements in the research.