The Risk Analysis Of Offshore Platform Accidents Based On FTA

With the increasing demand for oil,the oil and gas reserves will gradually decline,and the pace of development of offshore oil and gas resources will be accelerated.Marine development is a kind engineering with “high technology,high investment,high risk”,so there is an urgent need to carry out scientific identification,assessment,early warning and control on the possible risk of offshore platform construction.It has become a major problem which we are facing in operation of the offshore platform.In this paper,we use two methods to evaluate the safety of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico.1.Application and validation of fault tree analysisThis paper structures the offshore platform accident tree based on the basic theory and principle of knowledge innovation step of Fault tree analysis(FTA).We come to the conclusion that the mainly due to the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Horizon blowout is man-made mistake through analyzing the comprehensive factors.2.Application and verification of triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy processThe accidents of offshore platform were investigated by the experts basing on the concept of Triangular fuzzy AHP and using the influence of calculation.And the paper calculates the weight of each factor based on the Triangular fuzzy number analysis and evaluation.Then the evaluation results are consistent with the fault tree analysis method.In order to reduce the possibility of accidents as much as possible,this paper puts forward measures from the top two levels which are the effective prevention and fundamentally solving the key events to control the main risk factors in the offshore platform.Due to the limits of samples in number and scale,the results may be uncertain,which needs more experiments to confirm.