The Research On Carbon Emission Effects Of Land Use In Zhengzhou City

With the rapid development of social economy,the rapid increase of population and the continuous improvement of industrialization level,the greenhouse effect caused by the large amount of greenhouse gas emissions has become one of the world’s problems which threaten the survival and development of human beings.As a main indicator of greenhouse gas emissions,carbon emissions have become the focus of attention and research in the domestic and international community.Land is the carrier of all living activities,land use and cover change have an important influence on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystem.Numerous studies have indicated that land use patterns and structural changes are the main sources of carbon emissions other than fossil fuel burning.Therefore,the study of regional land use carbon emissions effect and its changing trend,analysis of the impact of land use changes in carbon emissions,not only for low carbon land use planning and management policies to provide a reference,but also to promote the coordinated development of social and economic and environmental protection,and promote the construction of ecological civilization has important practical significance.Using the relevant data of Zhengzhou City,this paper estimates the carbon emissions of land use in Zhengzhou city.Then,the carbon footprint model,carbon emission intensity model,grey relational model,decoupling elastic model and factor decomposition model were used to analyze the effect of carbon emissions from land use in Zhengzhou.Then based on the data of land use planning of Zhengzhou City,the land use carbon emissions in Zhengzhou in 2020 was predicted,and the carbon emission reduction targets were verified,and the main conclusions were drawn as follows:(1)The carbon emissions of land use in Zhengzhou city is increasing from 2002 to2012,and the construction land is the main carbon source,the cultivated land and forest land are the main carbon sinks.The net carbon uptake of land use increased from 8,894,400 tons to 21,416,400 tons,an increase of over 122.99%.(2)Using gray correlation degree analysis model,the relationship between landuse structure and land use structure in Zhengzhou city is analyzed.The results show that the structure of land use is closely related to the carbon emissions of land use.The correlation degree of each land use type is as follows: Construction land>Woodland>Cultivated land>Waters>Other agricultural land=Grassland>Garden plot>Unused land>Wetland.(3)Decoupled elastic model calculation results show that the carbon emissions and economic development of land use in Zhengzhou are in weak decoupling state from 2002 to 2012.This indicates that the economic growth rate is higher than that of land use carbon emissions.However,the economic development of the energy consumption for the rapid economic development has not been significantly improved.(4)Using LMDI factor decomposition model to analyze the driving factors of land use carbon emissions in Zhengzhou city,the results show that land use efficiency factor can restrain the carbon emissions of land use from 2002 to 2012,and it has decreased carbon emissions by 31,046,200 tons during 10 years.But the level of economic development,land use and carbon emissions intensity,population size and land use structure factors will increase carbon emission,these factors have promoted the growth of carbon emissions by 26,019,200 tons、7,972,100 tons、5,116,700 tons and 4,848,900 tons.(5)The land use carbon emission will be 37,014,800 tons,through the forecast of the net carbon emissions of land use in Zhengzhou city in 2020.At the same time,the result of the carbon emissions reduction target was certified depended on the carbon emissions reduction target settings in Zhengzhou in 2020.The result shows that it will have to reduce carbon emission by 1,956,700 tons to accomplish the carbon emissions per unit of GDP reduction target.