An Empirical Research Of The Relationship Between Agricultural Economic Growth And Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution In Anhui Province

Ecological environment has been a hot issue of the cental and local gornments,especially the rural ecological environments is deteriorating,this problem become one negative factor of the harmonious development of the society.Anhui agricultural economic development is at a steady rising stage,and the agricultral output improve constantly,the living standards of farmers improve fastly,but the agricultural non-point source pollution problems in the region is increasingly prominent. This paper is based on literature research and empirical research, use qualitative and quantitative analysis, combine with environment economical theory and economic theory, analysis forming and managing theory of agricultural non-point source pollution,take use of environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis that in the early stages of economic development, the human producing behavior has an smaller impact on the environment pollution, with the human continue to develop the economy by putting more resources in order to obtain the maximize own interests, but they pay no attention to the harmonious development between environment and economy,in the end this development model result in environmental pollution gradually worse, after reaching a certain peak, people gradually concerned about the environment, and gradually govern environment. From agricultural non-point source pollution’s sources, mainly farming, livestock and poultry breeding and rural life three aspects,this paper analysis Anhui agricultural economic growth and agricultural non-point source pollution, conclusions are as follows:The current situation analysis of agricultural non-point source pollution:with the development of the agricutral economy in the Anhui province, the application amount and lossing volume of the fertilizer, pesticide and plastic sheeting appear a upward trend on the whole, and keep high usage and low utilization, ultimately resulting in a large part of agricultural chemicals into the water and soil, severely damage the ecological environment; livestock industry develop rapidly, but the low level of comprehensive utilization of waste and pollution control, resulting in serious pollution of surface water and air; at the same time, the high emissions of straw and water emissions of rural life appear a linear upward trend. In short, agricultural non-point source pollution bring about a threat to soil, water, air and the farmers’ health.The empirical analysis of agricultural non-point source pollution:the indexes between agricultural growth and agricultural non-point source pollution exist cointegration relationship and Granger causality test,the result indicate that agricultural economic growth is the cause of agricultural non-point source pollution. EKC results showed that:the relationship show "inverted U", "inverted-U+U type" linear pattern between agricultural pollution and agricultural economic growth. Between the per capita output value of agriculture, forestry,and the unit drain of fertilizers, pesticides area loss unit volume, per unit area remaining amount of plastic sheeting and water emissions of rural life appear "inverted U-shaped" EKC curve, and the first three have been the turning point of EKC appear in the future is expected to decline, and in the future the environment improve gradually; and water emissions of rural life in the left turning point, and may continue to increase,it is not conducive to the ecological environment. It presented "inverted U+U Curve" between animal manure emissions and per capita output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, and it is an rise-fall-rise slowly trend between 1990 and 2012 year,and livestock emissions is in the "U-type" right side now, there is an upward trend in the future. There is linear increasing relationship between straw emissions and per capita output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery,and emissions along with the growth of the agricultural economy gradually increase.The main issues of agricultural non-point source pollution analysis:institutional mechanisms for agricultural non-point source pollution is not perfect, farmers’ environmental consciousness, confuse point source and non-point source pollution control, backwardness of technological prevention, rural life disposal system is imperfect and so on.By empirical research on Anhui agricultural non-point source pollution, combined with the successful experience of foreign prevention of agricultural non-point source pollution, in the end put forward proposals from farming, livestock breeding and rural life source of pollution, while increasing technical and financial support, encourage technological innovation, strengthen environmental awareness, promote mass to participate in management.