Vegetation Coverage Dynamic Change And Forecast Analysis In Foshan

This paper selects the remote sensing image data of Foshan city in 2001,2005,2009,2013 and 2016.The vegetation coverage of each period was extracted based on the object-oriented vegetation coverage inversion model and the spatial and temporal variation of vegetation coverage from 2001 to 2016 is analyzed,At the same time,the characteristics of landscape pattern change of vegetation cover were studied by using landscape index model.The driving mechanism of vegetation coverage in Foshan city is analyzed from both natural and social aspects.Using the CA-Markov model to predict the future trend of Foshan city,the vegetation coverage map of Foshan city in 2023 was obtained.This study provides a reliable scientific basis for formulating the spatial planning of Foshan city and determining the direction of urban development,and provides a reference for the sustainable and coordinated development of the regional economic and social environment.The main achievements of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on object-oriented image feature extraction technology and based on the principle of binary dichotomy,the model of vegetation coverage inversion based on object oriented was constructed.Based on the model,extract the vegetation coverage of Foshan city.It is divided into five grades: non-vegetation coverage,low vegetation coverage,moderate vegetation coverage,higher vegetation coverage and high vegetation coverage,for further analysis.(2)By using the average vegetation coverage,difference method,dynamic degree model,The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of vegetation cover in Foshan city from 2001 to 2016 were studied and analyzed,It is concluded that the vegetation coverage in Foshan is decreasing first and then increasing,The dynamic characteristics of vegetation coverage in 2001-2016 were analyzed and studied using landscape index model,It is concluded that there are obvious advantages of high vegetation coverage landscape and non-vegetation coverage landscape in Foshan city and non-vegetation coverage has always been dominant.The fragmentation of vegetation coverage in Foshan gradually decreased,The maximum patch index increa-sed,The landscape pattern of vegetation coverage tends to be diversified.(3)A comprehensive study on the mechanism of vegetation coverage in Foshan city was carried out.It is shown that terrain factor and meteorological factors have a great influence on vegetation coverage pattern.The social and economic driving force represented by the economic development of the urbanization process,Its impact is growing.Based on these factors,this paper provides the transformation rules for the simulation of vegetation coverage pattern in Foshan city in the future.(4)Constructional the CA-Markov model,Based on this model,and then simulate the change of vegetation coverage pattern in Foshan city in 2016.The simulation accuracy is more than 80% from the quantitative and spatial accuracy.The results of a simulation study show that the method works well;Based on this model,the vegetation coverage pattern of 2023 was simulated in 2016.The simulation results show that the overall pattern of vegetation coverage in Foshan in 2016-2023 still maintains the development trend of 2009-2016 and the overall change amplitude is relatively slow.