Research On System Dynamics Simulation Of Traditional Manufacturing Industrial Upgrading In Jinagsu Province

After the German "Industrial 4.0" and the United States "re-industrialization" strategy put forward,the development of the manufacturing industry once again aroused widespread concern.Now China's manufacturing industry is facing Europe and the United States and other developed countries' technology strategy and Southeast Asia and other developing countries' low-cost strategy,how to achieve the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector in China's economic development,especially in the industrial economy is particularly important in Jiangsu Province.The rapid development of manufacturing industry made a great contribution to the development of the economy in Jiangsu Province,and which is still facing low value-added,weak innovation,ecological pressure and other issues.Studying the upgrading of manufacturing in Jiangsu Province to achieve Jiangsu's manufacturing industry and the overall economic sustainable development has important theoretical value and practical significance.Manufacturing upgrading refers to the process of manufacturing from the extensive to the intensive,low value-added to high value-added,high pollution to low pollution,high energy consumption to low energy consumption upgrade process.It is actually manufacturing industry to continuously improve the competitiveness by the way of structure adjustment of the complex process.Based on the current situation and existing problems of the manufacturing industry in Jiangsu Province,this paper uses the system dynamics tool to model and simulate the manufacturing industry in Jiangsu Province,trying to analyze the development trend of the manufacturing industry,the rationality of the internal structure of the industry,the investment in science and technology and environmental protection.The proportion of fixed assets investment in various industries and other aspects of research and development of Jiangsu Province research the manufacturing upgrading problem,and ultimately achieve both economic value and ecological value.Based on the analysis of the connotation of manufacturing upgrading,this paper establishes the system dynamics model and divides it into three subsystems:economy,resources and environment,combining with the development status and upgrading analysis of manufacturing industry in Jiangsu Province.Through the operation and simulation of the model,the validity of the model is tested,including the visual inspection,the running test and the historical test.The results show that the model can reflect the operation of the actual system well.Then,based on the simulation of the basic behavior of the system,it is found that the manufacturing industry in Jiangsu Province will continue to develop under the current policies.The output value of the manufacturing industry will continue to increase and the industrial structure of the manufacturing industry will continue to be optimized,but the degree of adjustment is insufficient and the leaping development of the manufacturing industry can't be realized.By changing the control parameters in the model on the basis of the original behavior of the manufacturing upgrading system simulation,and combined with the"China Manufacturing 2025 Jiangsu Action Plan" and the 13th Five-Year Plan of Jiangsu,including the ratio of investment in fixed assets,the proportion of investment in labor-intensive,capital-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing,the proportion of investment in science and technology,and the proportion of environmental investment ratio,we choose the combination of different parameters.8 kinds of typical simulation schemes are carried out and the development trend is predicted.By comparing and analyzing the simulation results,it is found that the economic growth,industrial structure,pollution discharge,energy consumption and scientific and technological progress in the scheme 7 are superior in other simulation programs,so we can think that it is an ideal development model.Finally,according to the results of the system dynamics simulation program,this paper puts forward some suggestions on the upgrading of manufacturing industry in Jiangsu Province from the aspects of government regulation,technological innovation,industrial structure adjustment ecological protection and suggestions under the background of China Manufacturing 2025 and one belt and one road.