Analysis And Scenario Simulation On The Landscape Pattern Evolution Of Peibei Mining Area

With the high intensity coal resources development and utilization process,Landscape pattern evolution ecological security have a significant changed in Peibei mining area.In-depth analysis its landscape pattern evolution analysis and simulation,for regional ecological security protection and resource coordination and utilization have an important significance.Based on landscape ecology,RS and GIS,this thesis uses landscape type dynamic attitude and relative change rate model,fractal model,Logistic-CA-Markovto coupling model,deeply study the evolution law of the landscape pattern in coal mine area,and simulate and analyze the landscape pattern under different scenarios in the future years.(1)Through the particle effect analysis of the landscape pattern index,the optimal particle size of the landscape pattern analysis of Peibei coal mining Area is confirmed as 30 m.And the characteristics of the spatial and temporal dynamic evolution,transfer trajectory and fractal landscape in coal mining area of Peibei are analyzed in detail.Then the dynamic changes of landscape pattern including diversity,connectivity,complexity,stability,etc.in Peibei coal mining area are expounded.(2)Adopting the collinearity diagnosis method,14 indicators were selected from the aspects of policy,natural environment,social economy,spatial restraint and mineral exploitation that influenced by the landscape pattern to establish the Logistic regression model of the mining area landscape,which shows the driving relationship and degree between each indicator and the landscape pattern evolution of coal mining area.(3)Based on the CA-Markov model,this paper establishes the prediction model of landscape evolution in coal mining area,and uses the model to simulate and analyze the status and difference of landscape pattern in Peibei coal Mining Area,focusing on economy control,ecology control and policy control respectively.