Research On The Conflict Based On The Rubinstein Bargaining Model

With the increasing complexity of the international situation,conflicts intensified.Nowadays,the study of conflict has become a hot topic and the research on the conflict is gradually turning to the practical application of conflict analysis.The game theory analysis of conflict has become a hot research method.In this paper,we extract three conflict analysis models from practical problems.And the equilibrium is given to avoid conflict by building mathematical models.The main work is listed as follows.(1)By quantifying the ability of deterrence and resisting deterrence,we establish a model of discount factor which convert deterrence to a certain factor which can use the model of bargaining to analyze the problem.(2)We propose a bargaining model of mutual deterrence based on the characteristics of three-player conflict analysis.Through the analysis of the credibility of deterrence and the probability of conflict,the conditions which cause the occurrence of the conflict between players and the equilibrium of the problem if it exists have been given.Finally,the validity of the analysis is verified by experiment.(3)We introduce the incomplete information in the problem of three-player conflict.A model is built to analyze the probability of conflict via the transformation of Harsanyi.(4)We also introduce a deterrent factor in two-player conflict problem and give the equilibrium of the definite and indefinite problem.And we also prove the existence of the equilibrium.