Research On Cost Control Of The Implementation Phase Of BOT+EPC Project Based On System Dynamics

After the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC,the Sustainable development trend of urban and rural integration puts forward higher requirements on the level of China's infrastructure coverage and also releases a huge demand for infrastructure construction.BOT mode and EPC mode favored by all parts of the country rely on the advantages of project financing and project management.On this basis,BOT+EPC mode integrated the those advantages,becoming the effective exploration of making up for the lack of public service supply,stimulating the society potential,enhancing the efficiency of infrastructure construction.For the qualified contractors,under the background that the industry standard is becoming increasingly perfect and the market competition is becoming more and more fierce,it's very potential to take part in the construction of BOT+EPC project relying on economic and technological advantages.But there's also some new challenges such as:the bigger investment,the heavier tasks and the longer payback period.Among them,the implementation phase of the project as the main stage of the general contractor to carry out the work and generate costs would have an important impact on the profitability of their projects.This paper draws lessons from the system dynamics method(SD),quantitative analyzing of the cost controlling of the BOT+EPC project implementation stage by constructing system dynamics model.Combining with the large number of impact factors of the BOT+EPC project's implementation phase,made a systematic research,including:1.Combining with the existing literature,start with BOT mode and EPC mode to analysis systematically the basic content and the characteristics of the BOT+EPC project,clear the wide applicability of BOT+EPC model in engineering construction.In the end,this paper divide the implementation process of BOT+EPC project into three aspects of the preliminary preparation,full implementation and formal operation.2.Based on the theory of project cost,this paper classified the cost structure and its influencing factors of the project.From three goals of project management,through the analysis of the interaction between the three objectives of the cost,duration and quality,the characteristics of the implementation of the cost control of the general contractor in BOT+EPC mode are further defined.3.Based on the theory of causal feedback and system dynamics,drew the causality diagram of the implementation phase of the cost control of BOT+EPC project.Firstly,based on the discussion of the design,procurement and construction's internal cost control logic,drew the different steps' causality diagrams of the cost control.On this basis,through strengthening the link between different steps,drew the integral causality diagram of the implementation phase of the BOT+EPC project.4.On the basis of the qualitative analysis,according to the characteristics of the system stock flow chart,constructed the system dynamics model of cost control in the implementation stage of BOT+EPC project.By setting the initial parameters,carried out the model and verified the feasibility and applicability of the model.Through adjusting the system variables,the improvement design of the cost control strategy is realized.Finally,according to the simulation results and the characteristics of BOT+EPC model,the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the project cost control of the general contractor.This paper introduces the principle of system dynamics to the BOT+EPC project,and provides a new way of thinking for the development of the BOT+EPC project cost control method.