Research On The Pricing Of PPP Expressway Projects Based On System Dynamics

As an important transportation infrastructure,expressway not only eases the pressure of the rapid growth of traffic,but also is an economic tie to enhance comprehensive national strength of China.But with the expressway featuring high quality requirements,huge investment and long payback period,the lack of funds and the difficulties in financing has become a bottleneck restricting the development of the expressway.Under the contradiction between the large construction demand of expressway and the lack of government funds,PPP model came into being.As a new model to attract social capital,PPP model has been widely used in the construction of infrastructure in many countries.As a key factor in the success of PPP projects,related to the reasonable interests distribution of government,the private sector and the public,pricing problem has been paid much attention to by project financing practitioners and researchers.Combining with related cases,there are still some unreasonable problems in current pricing of expressway and some even lead to project failure due to improper pricing.Therefore,under the background of promoting government and private capital's cooperation in infrastructure construction,how to pricing reasonably based on effectively solving the problem of project participation interests allocation,has become the key to a successful expressway PPP project.Taking the expressway PPP projects as research object,first of all,it reviews the pricing theory of PPP projects at home and abroad.Also it gets six key factors influencing concession pricing of the expressway PPP project and selects nine main influence factors by analyzing statistical data collected through questionnaire survey and using factor analysis.Secondly,based on the principle of the concession pricing of expressway PPP projects,it analyses the causal feedback relations between the price and the influence factors of expressway PPP projects in the perspective of system dynamics.It establishes the flow diagram of expressway pricing by using net present value(NPV)as an index of project decision-making,on the basis of the causal diagram refined.And it determines the equations between the variables,and uses fuzzy logic method to make qualitative factors quantitative.Respectively,both adjusting the concession price and concession period are simulated based on actual cases,and the results obtained are consistent with the actual project.Finally,it analyses the reasons of concession price changing and puts forward some measures and suggestions for price adjustment,based on the impact factor analysis of the concession price and model simulation.Taking the satisfaction into account,which is among the government,investors and the users,we must adhere to the price hearing system,in order to avoid information asymmetry.At the same time,we need to make the concession price play a dual role,and to establish a dynamic mechanism of price adjustment,as well as to implement a differential pricing according to local conditions.Thus,we could establish a demand-oriented pricing mechanism of PPP projects.