An Empirical Study On The Shadow Banking Risks

In 2008 after the global financial crisis, the shadow banking problems began to enter people’s vision and concern. This stage, China’s rapid development of the shadow banking, bank letter of cooperation, entrusted loans, underground banks and other shadow banking model in the financial industry in the increasingly high proportion of its size, the risk posed to the financial system is gradually revealed, people began expressing its concern and has heated up. Meanwhile, the current definition of domestic shadow banking is still a lack of a unified provisions, there is a big confusion and differences in the statistical and risk perception.In this paper, the research object as shadow banking, shadow banking connotation, characteristics, classification, organization, development status, size estimates, causes as a starting point, to make a detailed analysis of their positive effects and risks inherent. Meanwhile, the paper studies the relevant literature on aspects of the financial system stability, financial stability indicators for quantitative analysis, the article data for the time period 2001-2014, mainly from China’s economic and social development of the database, China Statistical Yearbook, Wande database(Wind), China people’s Bank, China Trust industry Association. In this paper, the scientific rigor of the mathematical model to analyze the influence of shadow banking to financial stability by numerical evaluation methods to build a comprehensive index system to make the financial system stability assessment through the establishment of VAR model, cointegration, Gran Jay causality test, impulse response, decomposition methods and other research methods to systematically measure the shadow banking system stability of China’s financial impact level, detailed risk shadow banking system exists.On the basis of quantitative analysis, it was concluded mainly includes four aspects: the development of the shadow banking stability have some adverse effects on the financial system, along with the potential and time-delay characteristics; modern economic development is inseparable shadow banking; shadow banking credit agencies as a complement to traditional commercial banking system, having credit creation function, a profound impact on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy; smooth and efficient financial environment effectively promote the growth of the shadow banking development.Finally, based on the results of the analysis we put forward policy recommendations paper, in order to exert positive effects of the shadow banking system, control shadow banking systemic risk, we must construct a reasonable regulatory system, and guide the healthy development of the shadow banking. Specifically including the strengthening of the establishment of the relevant legal framework to develop and regime; an effective information disclosure mechanism, increase the transparency of information; actively guide the healthy development of the shadow banking, strengthening of the financial innovations shadow banking; actively participate in international cooperation in financial regulation, prevention and response outside risks.