Risk Analysis And Aversion Study On The Urban And Rural Residents Basic Endowment Insurance Fund Of Jinchang

With the approaching of the population aging peak, urban and rural residents’ demands for pension increases, so the establishment of a sound social security system is particularly important. As one of the social security system’s key elements, urban and rural residents plays an important role in the basic endowment insurance for the entire social security system in normal operation. In February 2014, the State Council decided to establish a unified basic endowment insurance system for urban and rural residents, which combined the new rural social endowment insurance with urban residents endowment insurance and would be implemented throughout the country. With the expansion of urban and rural residents endowment insurance system coverage, the amount of its funds keeps growing. The sustainable development of urban and rural residents endowment insurance will certainly confront many risks, especially in its funds. Therefore, as for the research object, this article selects a city which implements unified management of the new rural social endowment insurance and the urban residents endowment insurance at the beginning of the implementation of the two systems. This research takes the sustainable development of fund as the key point of breakthrough, makes quantitative assessment and qualitative analysis of the risks the fund management may face in its promoting process, and proposes appropriate countermeasures for risk aversion based on the results of analysis and assessment. This is really important in both theory and practice for the achievement of sustainable development of urban and rural residents endowment insurance system. The study for the risk of urban and rural residents’ pension insurance fund in Jinchang will also bring more reference to some extent for the future development of endowment insurance in some other northwest cities.To analyze and study the hedge and increment of residents’ endowment insurance fund and the payment risks, the author adopts some models such as accurate analysis,ELES measuring analysis model, ARIMA models and so on. The conclusions are as follows:On the one hand,in the respect of the hedge and increment of residents’ endowment insurance fund, according to the analysis based on the current investment methods, both the social pooling accounts and the individual accounts bear an enormous pressure to preserve or increase the value, and they may even take the risk of devaluation.On the other hand,in the respect of payment guarantee, by comparing the amount of future residents basic pension income and rural residents basic expenditure, the study finds that,RMB100-500 yuan payment standards are unable to meet all the basic consumption expenditure of rural residents. However, at present about 97% of residents had opted for these five insurance payment standards. Therefore, the payment risk will become highlighted in the future.Those risks are likely to bring some negative effects to the sustainable development of urban and rural residents endowment insurance system.