Evaluation And Model Of Cultivated Land Intensive Use In Yining City Based On PSR Model

Cultivated land is an indispensable and extremely important production materials to meet the people’s demand for food. It is an indispensable material guarantee for people’s lives. Facing the rapid growth momentum of urbanization, more and more urban population, non between land and agricultural land has also undergone a great change, resulting in land resources dwindling, however, cultivated land resources lack will restrict the growth of regional economy and society, to and fro, not only social development will hindered, food security will also threatened.Yining city is located in the Yili River Valley, the cultivated land area is little and the use of difficulty, in order to ensure the sustainable use of cultivated land resources, then so strengthen the intensive use utilization pattern of cultivated land exploration is extremely necessary.The in take Yining City as the study area, based on in domestic and foreign research achievements on the intensive use of arable land, incorporated with the human coordination relations theory, attempts to construct a framework for the evaluation index system based on PSR, which includes pressure indicator, status indicator and response indicator.With the help of SPSS17.0 and GIS software, using principal component analysis, AHP method and Kriging interpolation, spatial autocorrelation, respectively from the point of view of time series and space of Yining City land intensive use level and distribution trend of evaluation and analysis, and uses of grey GM(1, 1) prediction model and ARMA model and prediction of Yining City likely to show the level of intensive use of land from 2015 to 2018.According to the analysis results and the actual situation of resources, the intensive use of cultivated land in Yining city were classified, and corresponding measures were put forward to improve the cultivated land use intensity.The results show:(1)From the analysis of the present situation of the study area of cultivated land, cultivated land quality is better but the area of the township small base, uneven distribution of cultivated land pressure considerably.(2)From theanalysis of time series, we can know that the cultivated land use intensity fluctuation increased in Yining city during 15 years from 2000 to 79.4093 in 2014, which increased from 39.4093 in to in. The index of cultivated land pressure fluctuations larger, during the study period evaluation score by 38.8473 increased to 64.8704;farmland state index increased rapidly, from 45.5171 rise to 85.4501 and rapid growth;response index research during the study period evaluation score by 39.4093 to79.4093, change larger.(3)Characteristics can be seen from the space, Yining City, the intensive use of arable land has significant spatial differences. The city has shown a cultivated land intensive level from the center to the surrounding continue to weaken,northwest southeast low high trend and the township of cultivated land intensive degree at significant level P < 0.05 spatial agglomeration significantly.(4)Prediction of Yining City from 2015 to 2018 may exhibit the intensive degree of cultivated land use is tends to rise, but in a period of rapid urban development, can not ignore the contradictory relationship between the natural resources, ecological security and social economic, to strictly protect arable land base does not reduce, or use intensity will gradually decline.(5)According to the township location advantages and development status, this paper attempts to Yining city divided into 5 kinds of cultivated land intensive use pattern types, respectively is: suburban development mode, boundary trade zone development mode, ecological agriculture tourism mode and characteristics of agricultural scale management and agricultural and animal husbandry industry comprehensive development. According to the above analysis results, combined with the characteristics and existing problems of cultivated land use in Yining City, the relevant ways of improving cultivated land intensive utilization were put forward.