| Jiangsu province is the earliest to enter into the population aging stage,as the data shows,over than 60 years of age population in Jiangsu province has reached 15.7923 million by the end of 2014,which is 20.57% of the total amount of census register,5%higher than the whole country which is 15.5%.And the level of the aging population will reach the peak in the year of 2030, the elderly population accounts for about 25%of the total population in Jiangsu province.At the aspect of industrial structure,this industry presents the structure of "231" in Jiangsu province,which lies in transformation and upgrading stage.Population ageing is the inevitable trend of economic and social development which has also become a huge challenge in the process of industry transformation and upgrading in Jiangsu province.Exploring the adjustment of industrial structure is important and significant to promote industrial upgrading and economic development,and which also makes sense when replying the ageing problem for other provinces and cities.The relationship between population and the industrial structure is exploered directed by population and industrial structure evolution theory and based on the 2010 census data and historical statistical yearbook data of Jiangsu province.And the ageing effect on industrial structure adjustment mechanism is expounded combining the theories all around the world.Problems about the development of an aging population,the situation of industrial structure,the employment present situation and existing problems of an ageing population is integrated and summarized in this paper.The positive and negative influence of the aging population on the industrial structure is analyzed on the angle of supply with the method of deviation analysis,analysis of elastic analysis and coupling coordination degree analysis.And then the method of PLS has been used to analyze the aging of population industry structure in Jiangsu province from the perspective of consumption.The ageing population shows a large base,fast growth,high aging status characteristic in in Jiangsu province,and the reason of population ageing is thedeclining in fertility level.Conclusion is drawed from two aspect:On the side of supplying,various industries reduce absorbing employment ability in Jiangsu,labor absorption mostly is provided the third industry,the second industry tends to saturation,and the first industry of labor reduces "Crowding Out" effect in recent years.Aging employment mainly concentrated in the first industry,which makes the first industry production efficiency low in Jiangsu.It is necessary to promote transformation and upgrading for agriculture.Nowadays the aging level of Jiangsu has restricted the upgrade of industry structure.From the perspective of consumer,Aging population is higher in the aspect of health care and education and cultural entertainment services than others in terms of consumption level.According to the research conclusion.For coping with the aging problem and promoting the adjustment of industrial structure,it is necessary to promote the population policy and the development of primary industry modernization and also we should speed up the third industry transformation and develop human resource of the elderly. |
