Impact Of Population Aging On The Industrial Structure In Shanxi Province

Population as an important factor in promoting economic growth,a country or region’s population,age structure and quality level have great influence on industrial structure.On the age structure of the population,in 1999,China entered the ageing society.In 2003,the population of Shanxi Province over the age of 65 in the province’s population meet the level 7.1%,which marks the beginning of Shanxi Province into the ageing society.Since the global financial crisis in 2008,Shanxi’s economic growth is slow.The year of 2015 and first half of 2016,Shanxi’s economic growth ranks second to last in the country.The traditional mode of economic growth is unsustainable,forcing the urgent need to adjust and upgrade the industrial structure in Shanxi Province.As the background of Shanxi’s ageing,this paper studies the impact of population ageing on the industrial structure of Shanxi Province,providing theoretical support for the transformation and upgrading of Shanxi’s industrial structure,reducing the negative impact of population ageing,promoting the development of Shanxi’s ageing industry and modern service industry,to promote the economy of Shanxi Province out of the woods,and to realize rapid and healthy development.This paper firstly defines the two concepts of population ageing and industrial structure,and analyzes them through related research and literatures from China and abroad.And then by its positive and negative effects,respectively,we explore what the population aging brought about to the primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry.Then in the analysis of Shanxi’s ageing and industrial structure situation,we use the logistic model to predict the level of ageing in Shanxi,and dope out that the aging trend in Shanxi Province will continue to deepen.On the foundation of the present state analysis,we analyzed the influence of the population aging on the industrial structure in Shanxi Province by constructing the econometric model.The empirical conclusion is that there is a long-term equilibrium and stability relationship between Shanxi’s ageing and industrial structure changing.The structure of three industries are the Granger causality of Shanxi’s ageing,in turn,this relationship can set up.And Shanxi’s ageing has a negative effect on the development of secondary and tertiary industries,but a positive effect on the tertiary Industry.Finally,based on the empirical results and the actual situation of industrial economy in Shanxi Province,Shanxi Province,on the one hand,should subsidize fertility and encourage the re-employment of the elderly to slow down the adverse effects of population aging,on the other hand,in the context of ageing,Shanxi Province should increase the construction of pension facilities,optimize the elderly service market,promote and help the development of elderly industry and modern service industry to further optimize the industrial structure.