The Research Of The Impact And Countermeasures Of Japanese Entry Into TPP On Chinese Economic And Trade

After the 2008 financial crisis, every country in the world are fully aware of the importance of strengthening international cooperation, as a result to consolidate and strengthen the existing economic cooperation, and actively develop new international cooperation. Among them, TPP, led by the United States with its high opening and high liberalization, caused the Asia Pacific countries and regions to attend and participate. In recent years, TPP have develop rapidly to a huge FTA, covering 11% of the world’s population, nearly 37% of the world’s total GDP, 1/3 of the total trade of world. Japan, as the third largest economy in the world, Asia’s second largest economy, one of the most important China trading partner, in July 15, 2013 formally joined the TPP negotiations, which is bound to have a huge impact on Chinese economic and trade.This study simulates the specific effects on Chinese economic and trade before and after Japan joined the TPP by using the GTAP model. Then compare the results to get the conclusions. After Japan joined the TPP, there will be a greater negative impact on Chinese economic and trade. The magnitude of it is that the deteriorated degree will be enlarged three times, 3.5 times, 5 times, 1.9 times and 2.8 times and 2.4 times respectively in Chinese export, import, trade conditions, trade balance, GDP and welfare indicators after Japan joined the TPP. At the same time, it will make the output of each industry sector in China, the import and export product structure and Chinese trade partners have a significant impact.In order to reduce the negative effect of Japanese entry into TPP on China, China should take actions actively. In the short term, as China is less likely to join TPP, China should strengthen international cooperation, strengthen the "The Belt and Road construction, upgrade the cooperation with the ASEAN and EU, deepen dialogue and cooperation with other “BRICS” countries, actively deepen the development of the existing FTA and develop valuable new FTA. In the long run, various preferential policies of the TPP protocol conduce to the development of Chinese economic and trade. Therefore, China should in-depth study and research the rules and regulations of the TPP protocol, deepen the system reform, and actively communicate with the United States, Japan and other members of the TPP, and finally join the TPP protocol at the right time.