Researchon The Demand Forecast Of Less-than-truckload Market In Beijing Railway Bureau

With Chinese economic transformation and upgrade of industrial structure,the output of the scattered white goods which is close to the daily consumer demand is rapidly improving, which makes thestructure of supply and demand for transport has been a profound change. However, China’s railway has beenonly concerned aboutthe bulk cargo market, ignoringtheconstant increase of Less-than-truckload transport market, resulting in China’s rail freight market share declined year by year. Railway freight reform in 2013, before being discarded railway less-than-truckload transport becomes the focus of the rail fright reform. Restart less-than-truckload transport has become the key measures to reverse the current situation of railway freight demand contraction. Therefore, the research of less-than-truckload market is particularly important to Railway. Among them, the demand for research on the less-than-truckload will become a prerequisite. Based on the above background,this paper expand less-than-truckload market demand forecast for research has important application value.Based on Beijing railway bureau as an example, this paper focuses on Beijing railway bureau less-than-truckload market demand forecast. Through the introduction to traditional less-than-truckload freight and scattered white goods, given the meaning of modern railway less-than-truckload freight, and introduces the development course of China’s railway transportation of less-than-truckload. the railway to restart the inevitability of less-than-truckload transport is presented. Then, the paper introduces the meaning and basic principle of transport demand forecasting, given the common transport demand forecasting qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods, by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of various methods, elected the two single prediction method of grey prediction method and multiple linear regression method. Theywere used respectively for the Beijing Railway Bureau less-than-truckload market forecast. Finally, by the method of entropy weighting factor of two forecasting methods to construct combined forecasting model, further to the Beijing Railway Bureau less-than-truckload market demand is predicted.Based on the forecast of the Beijing Railway Bureau Less-than-truckload market demand, the Beijing Railway Bureau of less-than-truckload transportation are analyzed, and putforward the development of Beijing Railway Bureau less-than-truckload transportation proposal.