Research On Change Of Agricultural Policy Of The Central Committee’s Document N0.1 From Punctuated Equilibrium Theory

Punctuated equilibrium theory, originated form the West, is a mainstream theory about the studies of abrupt changes of policy. It is widely applied to the process study of specific public policy transition process in most countries. The theory not only centers on long-term policy of gradual change process, but also explains the policy discontinuities that happen in long-term stability and continuous policy change process. It provides a new analytical framework for research on policy change. Based on intermittent-equilibrium theory, this paper takes agricultural policy changes that represented in the central government’s "No.1 Document" as a study sample. After an overview of Punctuated equilibrium theory and the central government’s "No.l Document", this paper will analyze Intermittent-Equilibrium Changes of the agricultural policy in "No.l Document" from both macro and micro angles. At the macro level, the "No.l Document" agricultural policy represent the evolution, that is "balanced policy (1982-1986)-interrupt policy(1987-2003)-the new policy equilibrium (2004-2015). At the same time, it explains the "No.l Document" agricultural policy by punctuated equilibrium theory. At the micro level, policy document quantitative research methods are used to econometric analyzes the central "No.l Document" in two periods of the past years, from 1982 to 1986 and from 2004 to 2015, by extracting high frequency keywords, building subject category, statistics category and the changes of category analysis with the time changes. Based on the analysis above, this paper puts forward a few recommendations in accordance with theoretical discontinuity-equilibrium theory and practice concerning the "three rural" issues.In the aspects of punctuated equilibrium theory:this paper concludes that punctuated equilibrium theory strongly accounts for the "No.1 Document" agricultural policy changes, and there are limitations in explanation on the other hand. At the same time, Central "Document" intermittent agricultural policy-Equilibrium Changes have a lot to do with the five special features-mass-oriented policy, governing integration, consensus decision-making, policy ceremony and planning. Therefore, based on our country’s policy, practice and five special features which driven central "Document" agricultural policy discontinuity-Equilibrium Changes, it is necessary to extend the intermittent-equilibrium framework, so as to provide a more accurate and effective framework for the analysis of Policy Changes. In the aspect of Revelation "three rural" issues:"No.1 Document" needs to continuously hold up "Three Rural Issues", and also release policy bonus in case of becoming an empty policy. And also, central "No.1 Document" needs to conform with the new economic normality initiatively, making itself do a great job in the balance of policy at the right time and in strengthening the role in policy-making so as to help Government make scientific decisions.