The Research Of The Effect Of Reducing Coal Consumption To Economic Growth In Hebei Province And The Optimal Allocation Of The Regions

Energy is the indispensable material foundation of human survival and social development, energy is a indivisible part of economic development. ndustry is a pillar industry in Hebei Province, the role of energy can not be ignored, and coal energy as an important element in Hebei Province, its role in economic growth should not be underestimated. Studies have shown that coal consumption is an important factor in promoting economic growth in Hebei Province; however, coal consumption at the same time promoting economic growth, but also to bring some environmental problems, in particular air pollution problems. In order to control air pollution problems, in 2013 the Hebei provincial government pointed out: by 2017 the province’s coal consumption a net reduction of 40 million tons compared with 2012,and developed a "reduction in coal consumption and reduce Hebei steel production task decomposition scheme" will reduce coal consumption of the specific tasks assigned to the various cities and industries. This article produced in this context.This paper is divided into two parts: a)the impact on economic growth of reducing coal sonsumption in Hebei province;b)cut the amount of coal in the optimization of distribution around the citys. The first part consists of two main areas: a Situation Analysis of Hebei Economic Growth Status and coal consumption,and coal consumption and economic growth relations;the second part is the impact of cuts in coal consumption for the economy and society. Build coal consumption and economic growth cointegration, Granger causality test,error correction model and variance decomposition and impulse response analysis,analysis Hebei reduce coal consumption to economic growth. The second part is a quote Gini coefficient Hebei coal cutting program to assess and ensure the efficiency and promote fairness point of view of cutting coal scheme optimization.The main conclusions:First, the existence of long-term and stable co-integration relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Hebei Province, in the long term, coal consumption increased by 1%, economic growth increased 1.1510114%.Coal consumption was positively correlated with the economic growth in the short term,the total coal consumption increased by 1%, increase economic growth 0.10424%. Thus, Hebei reduce coal consumption willinevitably have an impact on economic growth.Second, exists a long-term Granger causality between the coal consumption and economic growth in Hebei Province, coal consumption is a necessary condition for economic growth, econmomic growth is not a necessary condition for coal consumption.Third, from the impulse response analysis, the impact on economic growth in coal consumption rapid growth until 1987, after a slow growth rate in 1999 has stabilized. From the variance decomposition analysis, the economic growth of coal consumption in the contribution rate gradually increased in increments smaller before 1987, began to increase rapidly every year since 1988, we can see that the contribution that the economic growth to the coal consumption is increasing year by year, and coal consumption will have a lasting impact. Therefore, the coal consumption changes will affect the economic growth.Fourth, the Gini coefficient method for the evaluation of the program in Hebei cut coal consumption.The population- cut coal Gini coefficient was 0.50, indicating that from the perspective of the population around the city, the cut coal distribution scheme is highly uneven; coal consumption- cut coal distribution Gini coefficient index is 0.28, indicating that coal consumption from the view of the distribution around the city are more reasonable;GDP-cut coal consumption Gini coefficient is 0.35, this shows that from the perspective of GDP, this allocation scheme is reasonable. For the optimized programs,the population-cut coal Gini coefficient fell by 6.00%,the GDP- cut coal Gini coefficient calculated fell by5.71%, coal consumption- cut coal Gini coefficient does not change, the average Gini coefficient decreased by 5.26%, indicating that the obtained optimization is desirable.