The Influential Factors Of China’s Export To Major Trading Partners And Policy Recommendations

Over the past 20 years,especially China’s entering the WTO,exports are the main driving forces of economic growth. In the recent years, with lacklustre economic growth and with the signing of TPP and other regional agreements, China’s foreign trade face a severe situation and exports have been seriously weakened. Under the background of the adjusting structure and the transfer mode, how to exploit the potential of export and revive the glory of the export, has become a very important issue to theoretical circles and the working departments.The exports of China’s major trading partners have been selected as the object of study in the paper. Domestic and foreign factors have been brought into the model, which includes export rebate rate, industrial structure, exchange rate policy, bilateral real exchange rate of our country, real GDP of trade partners, a period lag of trade partners’ direct investment on China and amount of exports. Panel data have been used to conduct common coefficient and variable coefficient regression, and the influence of each variable on different trade partners has been acquired.The result shows: all the variants have obvious influence on China’s export as a whole; however, from the prospective of all the trade partners, the influence that the actual GDP of trade partners, the industrial structure and the export status in last period have on the export of entire China and its ten major trade partners is positive, while that of the other factors is uncertain for different countries. In addition, FDI does not affect too much on most trade partners. Apart from the aforesaid variants, this essay also describes the influential factors of the unquantifiable introduction model, believing that political relationships, trade friction,establishment of free trade zones and price competition will all influence the export market direction of China. Therefore, we may make improvement by pushing forward industrial upgrading, perfecting RMB exchange rate mechanism, regulating export tax rebate policies, increasing FDI use efficiency and setting up anti-dumping coping mechanism.At the end of the thesis,there are some policy recommendations for reference:firstly,China can make good use of WTO to promote global trade liberalization and oppose allforms of trade protectionism. Secondly, we will take an active part in setting up free trade zones to strength bilateral and multilateral trade. Thirdly, we must improve the RMB exchange rate mechanism and speed up the process of RMB nationalization and increase the proportion of RMB international settlement. Fourthly, China should improve political relations with trading partners to strength cooperation foundation. Fifthly, we must step up efforts to transfer mode and adjust structures, so as to promote the upgrading of industrial structure, improve technology and the international competitiveness of enterprises. Sixthly, we need adjust the exports tax rebate policy and use good of all kinds of export subsidy policy, reduce intermediate links, so that it have more pertinence and flexibility. Seventhly, China willl continue to attract foreign investments actively, expand the scale of foreign capital utilization and improve the quality of the use of FDI. Lastly,we should improve mechanism of the anti-dumping, countervailing measures and respond to a variety of anti-dumping and countervailing litigation.