Study On Dynamic Prediction And Influencing Factors Of Land Intensive Use In Development Zone In Different Area Of Fujian Province

With the constant improvement of industrialization and urbanization, the demand of urban land is increasing, the contradiction between human and land is intensifying. Development zone,a gathering area of regional economy and high-tech industries, its intensive land use has an important effect on alleviating the contradiction between human and land and promoting the development of society and economy.The object of this study is southeast developed area and northwest underdeveloped area in Fujian province. After that, based on the analysis of the intensive degree of development zone land use in two regions, the paper forecasted the degree to study the dynamic change regularities of land intensive use.Finally,the paper analysed the affecting factors of development zone land intensive use from inside to outside,including the age of development zones leading industry、traffic、development of regional economic and location. The research result shows that:(1) The analysis result of the intensive degree of development zone land use in two regions shows that:2013,the south east of Fujian, the Changle Economic Development Zone have the highest intensive degree of land use,is 86.91, There are not significant difference of the degree between Xiangan Industry Park and Anxi Economic Development Zone,is75.85、75.31,respectively.The north west of Fujian, there are significant difference of different development zone,the degree of Jiangle Economic Development Zone and Guangze Industry Park is ideal,is 83.43、79.39, respectively,the Liancheng Industry Park is 62.35.(2) The dynamic change regularities shows that:the development zone in the south east of Fujian,its intensive degree of land use hold by the laws of increase with rate decreased, and reached saturation value when 9 years,the degree is 79.53; the development zone in the north west of Fujian, its intensive degree of land use hold by the laws of increase with rate firstly increased and then decreased, and reached saturation value when 10 years,the degree is 80.59. Furthermore,the curve shows that the intensive degree of land use of development zone in two regions would decreased after reaching saturation value,that accords with the life cycle law of objective reality, however, in reality, because of the complexity of the developing direction after a set number of years,it should make a concrete analysis on intensive degree of realities of situation.(3) The analysis of affecting factors of the intensive degree of development zone land use shows thatthe higher the age of development zone, the bigger the intensive degree of land use; there are differences between the situation and utility of land utilization in various kinds of leading industries. In addition, the farther the location of development zone are apart from the centre of county,the more intensive the intensive degree of land use and vice versa; the road density in the development zone or out has little influence on the intensive degree of land use.The effect of social and economic factors to development zone land intensive use is complex:the south east of Fujian, the influence of the indicators of residents’ living standard on development zone land intensive use is greater,the real GDP per capita comes second, the influence of percentage of agriculture ranks third, and the intensive degree of land use has been less affected by population density and service output value ratio; the north west of Fujian, the influence of per capita revenue on development zone land intensive use is greater, the indicators of residents’ living standard comes second, the service output value ratio ranks third,the real GDP per capita and total retail sales of commodities has a small impact on intensive degree of land use,and population density is negatively related to intensive degree of land use.The study can provide scientific basis for development zone land intensive use in the different region of Fujian.Development zone in the south east of Fujian should pay attention to the prospective plan for the development and optimize the industrial structure to the advanced level; Development zone in the north west of Fujian should pay attention to the scientific plan for the development, invention of technology and improve the development of city and economy.