The Study On Location Of Cold Chain Distributioncenter Of Fresh Agricultural Products Based On Demand Forcast

Fresh agriculture production is necessities of people’s life and important resource of body’s nutrition ingestion whose quality and security are getting more and more attention. Fresh agricultural products have the character of perishableness, short expiration date so they must be under the condition of cold chain circulation to ensure their quality and nutrition. However, China’s present fresh agricultural products cold chain has a problem of small whole scale,unreasonable basic facility distribution, low efficiency in connection of each link,and so on. Besides, the rate of agriculture products’ circulation under the cold condition is only 19% that seriously affects the fresh agricultural products circulation in our country, restricts the development of agriculture in our country and influence the health of the people’s life. As a result, fresh agricultural products cold chain logistics system needs to be built in emergency. Fresh agricultural products cold chain distribution center is the core of fresh agricultural products supply chain link whose scientific location is beneficial to improve the system’s efficiency and thus shorten the time of fresh agricultural products distribution to guarantee g the quality of fresh agricultural products.Demand is a important factor of the distribution center location and a important premise of distribution center’s site selection. The investment of cold chain distribution center construction is huge and the construction cost is 50% higher than the equivalent proportion ordinary distribution center,therefore,selecting the site basing on the prediction of demand is very critical to the long-term development of distribution center. Based on that, this article studies the fresh agricultural products’ cold chain distribution center location problem with a consideration of demand forecast and demand changes during different times.This paper firstly illustrates the fresh agricultural products cold chain logistics, fresh agricultural products cold chain distribution center in theory, analyzes the types and characteristics of fresh agricultural products cold chain distribution center, as well as systematically analyses the fresh agricultural products cold chain distribution center location ‘s target, principle, factors, the site selection procedures and some related theories. Secondly, this paper chooses the grey forecasting method with a higher prediction accuracy, applied GM(1,1) prediction model for fresh agricultural products demand forecast under the premise of comparing different forecast methods’ accuracy; Basing on the demand forecast, this paper formulates fresh agricultural products distribution center location model with the minimum total cost objective functions in vary periods and uses Lingo software to work out the solutions; At last, taking Chongqing as an example, this article forecasts the demand of each districts in vary times and periods with the basic data of Chongqing districts’ per consumption and permanent residents. Furthermore, this article applies the referred model and acquires the best site selection project in different times and demands so we can choose the plan of minimum cost in vary times at last. Compared with the real situations, this site program’s feasibility is verified.