Human Resource Management Risk Evaluation Research Based On Bayesian Networks

In modern society, with the development of science and technology and the increasing competition in the market.the role of knowledge and skills in the enterprise is more and more prominent.As the carrier of knowledge and skills,human resource is the only creative and initiative resource in the enterprise,and the value of the enterprise needs to be done by people.Therefore,human resource is the most important and core resources of an enterprise, and human resource management is put in a strategic position in the business management.However, there are many uncertainties in human resource management and these may lead to a variety of risks that the enterprises face with. Human Resource Management Risk is everywhere and at all times, and the damage and loss of enterprise reputation and assets caused by the risk is difficult to estimate. Therefore, the objective and correct evaluation about the risk of human resource management will help to improve the effectiveness of enterprise human resources management.In this paper, the first part mainly introduces the research background, describes the purpose and significance of research in detail and gives the research protocols of the paper at the same time. The second chapter mainly summarizes the research status on human resources management risk and Bayesian Network in domestic and foreign through literature research,after that introduces the relevant theories of human resource management risk, Bayesian Network and AHP method.In the fourth part, we screen the human resource management risk indicators by using the method of AHP. build the risk evaluation index system, and then establish a Bayesian network model for Human Resource Management Risk Assessment based on a causal relationship.Finally, we analysis the present situation of human resources management of GUOYAO branch group in Q city by building a Bayesian network model, and according to the result of date analysis, we summarize the risk events that occurring more easily in the process of human resource management and then make specific recommendations for human resource management to avoid the risk.Bayesian networks can reflect the causality and conditions of the relationship between elements in a form of graph theory intuitively and make a network inference by integrating prior knowledge, and have a characteristic of graphical model and clear relationship between variable node. So this paper use the Bayesian Networks method to research human resource management risk assessment and construct evaluation model. These can handle some problems such as more subjective factors and less quantitative analysis in the human resources management risk assessment, improving the scientificity and effectiveness of risk management.