Research On The Effect Of The Rapid Growth Of Car Ownership On Oil Demand

In recent years, the growth speed of the oil consumption in China is significantly higher than the output speed of the crude oil, as a result, the gap of supply and demand has become bigger and bigger, and China’s external dependency on oil has further increased. In 2015, China’s external dependency on oil has increased to 60.6%, and will probably continue to rise. The car ownership which closely related to the oil demand, increasing from 5.5136 million in 1990 to 145.9811 million in 2014, increasing nearly 26.5 times.Rapid growth of car ownership speeds up the oil consumption and demand. Because the automobile is a consumer goods that need plenty of energy and resources, so along with the rapid growth of the car ownership, it is bound to bring about the rapid consumption of the oil, causing the oil security problem of our country. Therefore, in order to ensure our energy security and gradually reduce our country’s external dependency on oil, it is of significance to control automobile oil consumption and adopt automobile oil-saving measures.In this paper, the authority figures are collected from the "BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook", "China Statistical Yearbook", "China Automotive Industry Yearbook" and so on. After reading the corresponding references, the current consumption status of our country’s automobile and oil is analyzed and predicted. Then the problems of cars and oil consumption control is proposed and analyzed; then according to the statistics of the automobile ownership and oil consumption from 1990 to 2014, the author adds the prices of the oil as a control variable, uses the ADF series stationarity test and Johansen cointegration analysis, a three-variable error-correction model which has been modified by the GTS theory is estimated, and then a more concise and reasonable constraint model is selected. The regression results of the constraint model show that there is a one-way causal relationship between China’s car ownership and oil consumption. In other word, automobile ownership is a cause of the long-term change of the oil consumption and has a certain influence in the short term; but the long-term and short-term effects of the oil consumption on automobile ownership are not significant. The effect of the price of oil acts opposite role on oil consumption. On the basis of constraint model, this paper continues to forecast the oil consumption demand of our country, on three kinds of circumstances:the price of oil for low, medium and high. The results show that the lower the price of oil, the greater consumption oil, but not vice versa Finally, by combining with the actual situation in China and learning the international experience, some measures are put forward to restrain the rapid growth of oil consumption in terms of improving the level of traditional automobile fuel, developing new energy vehicles, green rail transportation and public transportation, perfect the financial system of oil and for oil pricing power.