Hunan Electric Power Demand Analysis And Forecast

Along with the rapid development of our economy,energy consumption is also growing fast. How to programming the energy distribution reasonably,and use of limited resources to accelerate economic development,has become an increasingly important issue.A growing number of scholars involved in the research of inherent links between energy consumption and economic growth,is also developing a number of methods for forecasting energy consumption. The electric power industy is an important and fundamental industry relating to national economy.In recent years, The electric power of Hunan province develops very fast. However, the electric demand increase faster, the contradiction of supply and demand is conspicuous.So,correct and reasonable to forecast energy consumption not only can guide the allocation of resources,but also provide valuable information for the formulation of economic policies.Taking the unstationary in the economic time series into considerati-on,this paper discuss the causation of power demand,GDP , fixed investments and population.Based on the unit root test for these variables,the cointegration model is put forward to analyze the cointegration relationship between the explained variable and explanatory variables.The model not only represents the equilibrium relation between electricity consumption and its main influence factors,but also can forecast the long-term electricity power demand.Owing to the existence of equilibrium mechanism,an error correction model is put forward to reflect the error degree between long-term and short-term. Meanwhile we use models to forecast the electricity demand of Hunan province (2006-2007).The forecast results show that the model has relatively high accuracy.From the non-linearity in the economic time series, semi-parametric regression model is found for evaluation of the electricity demand in Hunan province.Comparing the forecast results of semi-parametric regression model and general regression model,we found that semi-parametric regression model is better than the general regression model in the predictin accuracy.Finally,we put forward some proposals about the development of power industry in Hunan province.