Analysis Of The Unemployment Risk In China’s Transformation Of Economic Growth Mode

This paper took a model as the theoretical tool. Through discussing the risk transmission mechanism in China’s transformation of economic growth mode, the paper did an analysis on the unemployment risk brought by the transformation at the macroscopic scale. Based on the employment in recent years, the paper analysed both the overall unemployment risk and regional one. A conclusion was drawn and was used to categorize the unemployment risk in order to come up with political suggestions to promote the transformation.In the transformation of economic growth mode from inefficient to efficient, China notices that the inefficient economic growth mode does not change at the expected speed. It means that China should give priority to solve the issue that the transformation slows down.The reason why the transformation slows down might be that the economic risks brought by the policies which the government used to promote the transformation could not be known. These risks probably come into appearance in enterprises. However, though chain reaction in industries, they could cause huge macro-economic risks, such as a rise on price, a decline on economic growth rate, an increase of unemployment, a decrease of export, a reduce on government receipts and raise on bad debts in banks. On the one hand, the influences those risks make would be a disaster if the government does not settle them appropriately. On the other hand, those unknown risks would be the reason why the local governments, whose benefits would be damaged the most, resist the transformation. Taking the high cost and the limited return in China’s performance inspection and drive mechanism into consideration, it becomes inevitable that the impulse to promote the transformation is not enough. Therefore, the lack of scientific analysis of the risks makes it difficult for the local governments to build a risk control mechanism and a drive mechanism to support the transformation.The unemployment risk is one kind of these risks. Besides, how much the unemployment risk would influence will also make effects on the promotion of transformation. So it is necessary to have an analysis on the unemployment risk.This thesis was divided into four parts.Part one was a brief introduction. In this part, the background of the research, the means to do the study and the arrangement of the contents of the paper were displayed. Based on China’s recent situation, this part did a try to find out the reason behind the issue that the transformation slowed down. The same did the innovation and deficiency of this paper. And the innovation was that the author focused on the connection between the unemployment risk and the transformation of economic growth mode, and took the analysis of unemployment risk as a try to solve the issue.Part two was a display of the present study in related fields, at home and abroad. The former was made up of studies on the transformation of economic growth mode, the later focused on the influence, brought by the industrial structure optimization, on the employment. A comment followed.Part three was the analysis of the unemployment risk. A theoretical analysis as well as an analysis on China’s present situation were made. The risk transmission mechanism was shown at the very beginning. Then The Ramsey Model and its deduction were used to analyze the reasons which influence the unemployment in order to offer the theoretical base for the following demonstration. Based on the present employment in China, the paper did analyses on both the overall unemployment risk and regional one, aiming to come up with some practical suggestions.Part four were the conclusion and policy implications. In this part, a summary of the study, as well as the deficiency of the paper were shown. Then, considering the present economy in China, the author offered four pieces of advice to do help to the transformation of economic growth mode.