Macro Risk Of The Transformation Of Economic Growth Mode:Perspective Of The Export Commodity Structure

With the deepening of more than 30 years of reform and opening, the rapid growth of exports trade has greatly promoted China’s rapid economic growth, hi recent years, economic growth has slowed down, exports of primary products has reduced and manufacturing goods increased, among which labor-intensive products are in gradual decline. Changes in export commodity structure means that China’s economy has entered the New Normal. Chinese government will choose the transformation of economic growth mode as new policy priorities and develop and implement a series of policies and measures, which may cause the output decline of some export enterprises in the short run. How to deal with the transformation of economic growth mode macro risks has become the starting point for the formation of government policy. Therefore, the analysis of macroeconomic risks of the economic growth mode transformation from the perspective of export commodity structure is of great significance to reality.This study will give analysis on macroeconomic risks caused by the transformation of economic growth mode from the perspective of export commodity structure, which helps identify risks, analyze risk pathways and control risk.Specifically, the main work is as follows:1) Literature review presents related research on economic growth mode transformation, economic growth and exports at home and abroad. From these, it describes different studies on economic growth mode and the relationship between economic growth and exports. Besides, it tries to find out the scholars’basic understandings on the relationship between economic growth and export in order to do research and analysis of macro risk of China’s economic growth mode transformation, which lays the foundation for analysis of macro risks of economic growth mode transformation from the perspective of the export commodity structure2) It demonstrates the relationship between economic growth and exports. This study analyzes some research findings on the economic growth mode transformation and summaries four measures of transformation, namely, restructuring the economic system, industrial structure conversion, technical progress and governmental function changes. Besides, using statistical data investigated, it presents the current situation of exports and export commodity structure based on HS classification.3) It points out analysis of transformation of economic growth mode using the theory of the national income identity as the base of the relationship between economic growth and exports and comparatively analyzes economic growth and export to identify the macro risks from the perspective of structure of export commodities. Changes in the structure of export commodities directly reflect industrial restructuring in the process of transformation of economic growth. This study first does comparative research on GDP and export and then analyzes the variation trends of proportion of primary products and manufacturing goods using the charts. It explains risk identification, risk transfer pathways and risk control measures deeply from the perspective of export commodity structure.4) It tries to empirically demonstrate whether the transformation of economic growth mode has macro risks from the perspective of export commodity structure and qualitatively analyze whether the export commodity structure adjustment will bring risks to the macro economy. It firstly empirically demonstrates the relationship between GDP and export commodity structure of primary products and manufacturing goods by the use of STATA software, while unit root test determines the stability of time sequence. Then it uses coin-integration test to identify whether there exists long-term and stable relationship between them and proves the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between the three variables; then it uses the Granger test to determine whether there is a causal relationship between them; and at last it gets the regression outcome through error correction model. It gives Qualitative analysis on risks and proves the conclusion that the restructuring will result in exports macroeconomic risks. The regression results show that the adjustment of the export commodity structure will bring the risks to macro economy and the effects on macro economy primary products and manufacturing goods have are different.5) On the basis of the above analysis, it draws two conclusions and proposes five policy recommendations.This study also has some shortcomings. It does not have meticulous division of export structure and give in-depth analysis of the impact on macro economy transformation of economic growth mode have from the perspectives of export domestic and foreign regional structures. At last, this study fails to make deep exploration on the logic between micro policies and adjustments of export structure.