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The Analysis On The Relationship Between Urban Unemployment And Non-agricultural Economic Growth Of China

Posted on:2009-08-19Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J J YangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189360272455036Subject:Regional Economics
Abstract/Summary:
China's economic growth is rapid, while the unemployment rate is high. The reason of this phenomenon which is different from the general economic theory has been researched by some scholars and they obtained some good theoretical results. But they are not enough depth and a single point of view. Based on existing research results and overcome the shortcomings of existing research results, I try to provide another perspective explanation of the phenomenon which is coexist of high economic and high unemployment.This paper inspects the relationship of urban unemployment and non-agricultural which take the primary industry off from GDP, and is longer simply inspecting the relationship of urban unemployment and GDP. I think they have a more direct causal relationship than others. This paper discusses the specific relationship between urban unemployment and non-agricultural, using standardized research and empirical research methods, supplemented by quantitative analysis. Then identify the cause and based on this, put forward policy recommendations.Firstly, I define the concepts of urban unemployment and non-agricultural and introduce the main relevant theory. Then describe the development of China's non-agricultural economy, and also pointed out that China's unemployment statistics' main problem and find the credible method to calculate the urban unemployment rate. Secondly, I analyses the correlation between them, and find out they have a phase change characteristics: the relationship between the two appeared unrelated to reverse change, changes in the same direction, reverse change again in the past twenty years. And use Granger test to prove that the two doesn't exist causal relationship in the short and middle-term. Thirdly this paper explains the phenomenon from two aspects: total unemployment and structural unemployment. From the perspective of the total unemployment to explain the reasons for the phase changes, and form the perspective of structural unemployment to add the weak effect of non-agriculture to urban unemployment. Fourthly, on this basis, I derived from the reduction of unemployment policy recommendations logically in accordance with China's characteristics. Therefore this paper not only has theoretical significance, but also has some practical significance.Clues to the contents of the article, the innovations in the theory and method of this paper include the following: First, it is the indicators selection of unemployment and economic growth; secondly, the paper found the phase change relationship, and this can help us deeper understanding of the relationship between the two; thirdly, there is not a simple analysis about the two, but from the total unemployment and structural unemployment two different perspectives to discussed and explained.
Keywords/Search Tags:Urban unemployment, Non-agricultural economic growth, Okun's law, Total unemployment, Structural unemployment
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