Analysis On The Periodic Fluctuation Of Market Price Of Broiler Chicken And Its Cause In China

As an important index to measure the development degree of broiler industry and the consumption level of chicken, the market price of broiler has direct influence on the benefits of broiler farm households and the sustainable development of animal husbandry industry. Due to the outbreak of human infection with H7N9 virus first reported in March 2013, the market price of broiler changed frequently. Meanwhile, the poultry consumption decreased significantly and the poultry industry suffered heavy losses. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the change law of broiler market prices and its causes. In addition, Meat-type broilers in China include two major categories:white feather broiler and yellow feather broiler. Because of the differences on the production cycle, circulation channel, listing way and consumer groups between the two broilers, the change laws of prices of these two categories are different. Therefore, the fluctuation law of market price of broiler chicken and its causes should be divided into two types. Based on the elastic theory and market supply and demand theory, and the price data from January 2001 to July 2013, this paper analyzes the characteristic of price periodic fluctuation of the broiler in China, and then focuses on the causes. This paper consists of five chapters.Chapter one "the introduction" proposes hypothesis, and introduces the research content, methods, and technical route and data sources.Chapter two "the theoretical basis and empirical validation" analyzes the change law of market price of broiler and its causes according to the theories.Chapter three "the development of broiler industry and the price fluctuation".In this chapter, we review the elements and characteristics of China’s broiler industry from two aspects of production and consumption, and then analyze the fluctuation characteristics and law of broiler in the short-term and long-term.Chapter four "factors affect the fluctuation of market price" is the core part of this paper. In this part, we analyze the factors affect the fluctuation of market price from two aspects of supply and demand based on theoretical and empirical analysis in chapter two.Chapter five "the conclusions and policy recommendations" concludes the price fluctuation laws of broiler, and proposes some suggestions.The results show that:(1) in the short term, there are significant seasonal fluctuations on white feather broiler and Chinese yellow feather broiler; in the long term, these fluctuations are conformed to the cobweb model. There are significant periodic fluctuations observed on the price of broiler with a cycle of two years. The prices cycle of yellow feather broiler is slightly longer than that of white feather broiler. (2) From the demand angle, income is one of main reasons for the broiler consumption. Moreover, the rural residents are more sensitive to the market signal. (3) From the supply angle, the production cycle, cost and production technological level of broilers show obvious effects on the production. In addition, the devastating effects of emergencies cannot be ignored.Based on the above conclusions, this paper attempt to propose several suggestions:(1) to promote the larger-scale rearing and standardization rearing of broiler, thus enhancing the industrialization level of broiler industry; (2) to proceed the scientific propaganda and provide safety, marketable security and high-quality broiler products; (3) to improve the prevention and control system of poultry diseases in China and reduce the effect of disease on chicken production and consumption; (4) to strengthen the macro-control efforts of Chinese production and establish the early warning mechanism of production and prices of chicken.