A Research On The Financial Risk Warning Model Of Construction Listed Enterprise

Economic globalization has doubtlessly brought many opportunities and challenges to the development of China’s mainland enterprises.Business risks are increasing, and the market environment is becoming more and more complex. Financial crisis is one of the most serious consequences of business risks.If not preparing in time, enterprisesare likely to go bankrupt. In 2015,China’s national economic slowdown, downward pressure on the economy, economic fluctuations affect all walks of life. In such economic environment, the ways of how to improve enterprises’ability of dealing with the risk and crisis, and how to take effective precautionary measures are of great significance for domestic enterprises.Construction industry, as one of the traditional industries,has already shown signs of shrinking in the second half of 2015. Especially under the background in the real estate to inventory policies, and in the field of building industry, this traditional main battlefield, profit space has basically saturated, even in some areas, there have emerged decline in profit, spaceleft to the increasingly fierce competition in the construction enterprise extension seems to be little.For a long time, the construction industry has been regarded as a relatively stable industry in financial situation by a lot of observers, making a number of potential risks have been ignored. Financial crisis early warning, as a frontier theory, for several decades, has been researching on the industry and the manufacturing-listedcompanies, and did very little research on early-warning of the construction industry. The few studies are allabout financial condition assessment of individual building enterprise, which for other construction enterprises, especially daily financial risk prevention work of a large number of small and medium-sized construction enterprises, the reference valuable is very limited. The application of the early warning system in China’s construction enterprise financial analysis without considering the difference between industries will inevitably be acclimatized. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out accurate research on the characteristics of the industry according to local conditions.。This paper takes the listed companies from 2006 to 2015construction enterprises as the studying objects, and chooses 27 enterprises as financial crisis sample, and select 57 healthy enterprise with financial condition as the control group, and collects the relevant data three years before financial crisis, and carries out empirical analysis. Then it systematically introduces non financial information into the model construction, and then separately constructs the model of pure financial indicators and non-financial information model, and compares prediction accuracy of the two models, then explores whetherthe non-financial information introduction can improve the accurate rate of the early warning model, and finally provides some new ideas for the optimization of the financial crisis early warning model.The basic research system of this paper is as follows, first it introduces the research background and significance,and gives an overview about overall environmentof China’sconstruction industry and the research status of the construction industry financial crisis, and it puts forward the research direction and the innovation point of the paper; secondly, it sorts out the research result of in the field financial crisis, and analyzes of the advantages and disadvantages of previous studies; thirdly, it determines the direction of the research modelthrough the analysis of the causes of financial risk of construction enterprises.And from the angle of theory, it analyzes the possibility of enhancing the accuracy of prediction model by introducing non-financial information; then, in the empirical analysis of logistic regression analysis, it builds a financial crisis early warning modelsuitable for construction enterprises listed in the company’s, model checking can be good predictors of construction enterprises listed company’s financial crisis, and test is introduced non financial information to the model whether optimization function. Finally, the research conclusions are made and suggestions are put forward.