Shandong Province Regional Logistics Development Analysis And Combination Forecast Of Demand

As the name suggests, The process of logistics refers to warehousing, packaging, processing, handling, loading, transportation and other goods. You can choose different transport tools and a variety of ways to achieve the goal. The natural environment is a congenital factors and a very important factor in Transportation. This difference exacerbated the economic imbalances, Advantages area with its own conditions, improve infrastructure, attract the best talent, improve technology and equipment, improve logistics efficiency and reduce the cost of enterprise transport links, so seize the initiative in economic development. A regional logistics study should include the whole and parts of the region, Analysis of favorable and unfavorable factors affecting the development Logistics, Looking for leaders and followers in the region, Learn the advanced idea from the leader and find highlights from followers, pay attention to the advantages of followers and foster growth.Choose Shandong Province as the research object, because the region geographical diversity and different levels of economic development, the difference is obvious in development of logistics. Many parts of the port, maritime development, transport and logistics at a competitive cost, Integrated logistics capability is very strong. At the edge of the southern region of Shandong, to use their vast hinterland, abundant labor, salary comparable advantages features, giving priority to the development of commercial, logistics, gradually grown to become economic growth point. Although per capita output is not high, the Linyi, Jining logistics capabilities cities ranking higher. Jinan, led by the Metropolitan, with more resources, but the uneven distribution of resources, both large cities, but also the presence of very small city, population size is an important factor affecting demand, back-up resources for development on a limited, inadequate logistics needs. Therefore, the regional logistics development depends on economic ties between regions, if the economy is closely linked, logistics development will form a regional logistics circle.In this paper, using principal component analysis and cluster analysis, comprehensive evaluation the development of regionallogistics of every city in Shandong Province, according to empirical results and experience, the development of the logistics area in Shandong Province can be divided into three large pieces: Qingdao and the surrounding areas, Jinan and the surrounding areas and Lunan. according to principal component analysis, cluster analysis, division logistics nodes center city, using principal component analysis to calculate municipalities integrated logistics capability score, then, according to the results of the first two principal components to complete the cluster analysis, so that 17 cities will be divided into six categories, and then based on the results of clustering and municipalities integrated logistics capabilities, as well as reference to the reality of the actual situation, determining the regional logistics center city. From the last division results, Qingdao, Jinan and Linyi city core logistics nodes respectively in their respective regions.Combination Forecasting Model with GIOWA operator was introduced into the logistics demand forecast, construction of combination forecasting model about a transformation weighting coefficients, and applications in logistics demand in Shandong Province, use freight volume of nearly 20 years of data, relying on individual forecasts, combined with the Closeness Criterion,to establish the optimal combination forecasting model containing arithmetic average minimum of GIOWA operator, predicts demand of logistics in Shandong Province in the five years, based on the angle that logistics demand scale changes can reflect the economic situation is good or bad, combined with the use of combination forecasting method results 2015- 2019 freight volume value in Shandong Province, the economy showed signs of stabilizing in Shandong Province, the future economy will maintain a good momentum of development.