Research On The Adjustment Parameters Of Basic Pension For Enterprise Employees Based On System Dynamics Simulation

The basic pension is related to the quality of every workers’retirement life. But China has not yet been established scientific and long-term treatment adjustment mechanism. Although since 2005, every year China’s basic pension level has increased 10% for 9 consecutive years. But this artificial adjustment of arbitrary large,not only make workers for the future pension incomes with no clear expectations,but the biggest challenge is the pension fund’s long-term balance and expenditure capacity.This study takes the simulation software AnyLogic6.4.1as a research platform, use system dynamics method to study the adjustment parameters of basic pension for enterprise employees.In this paper, by the analysis of the The main factors influencing the workers basic pension level, determine the variables, parameters, and the structural relationship between them. Build the basic pension insurance fund forecasting model. Firstly under the current policy unchanged on China’s basic endowment insurance fund 2001-2040 years of operation for the simulation and prediction. Then through the simulation experiment of four different pension adjustment scheme of the consumer price index, the average wage index, GDP index and comprehensive index to simulate forecast.Study finds that, under the conditions of the current policy remains unchanged, economic growth environment is an important factor affecting the fund balance. Except high scheme, endowment insurance fund gap will appear in 2040 under medium scheme and low scheme. Fund gap scale were 16.47 trillion and 46.2 trillion. The optimization experiment results show that, the average wage index adjustment is the most desirable way among he four adjustment index in this research is designed. According to the average wage index adjustment of pensions will not occur fund gap under three scheme. And smaller fund balances able to maintain the long-term balance of endowment insurance fund. In 2040, the cumulative fund balance is 87.72 trillion yuan under high scheme,59.43 trillion yuan under medium scheme, 52.81 yuan trillion under low scheme. The pension expenditure scale and the basic pension per capita level could maintain a high level of protection under three schemes, after the comprehensive index method merely. In 2040,the pension expenditure will be 17.38 trillion yuan under high scheme,8 trillion yuan under medium scheme,6.15 trillion yuan under low scheme. In 2040, the basic pension per capita will be 282,400 yuan under high scheme, 130,000 yuan under medium scheme,100,000 yuan under low scheme.According to the results, this paper proposed the establishment of the average wage index adjustment mechanism. In the overall area, adjusting the pension according to the average wage last year. Fixed adjustment time, at the same time, release and deployment of coordinate in the whole region pension properly. Fundamental measures to maintain the fund balance, improve pensions is developing the national economy. And it can provide the economic foundation for the effective operation of pension insurance system.