Research On The Redistribution Effect Of The Central Adjustment System Of Urban Employees' Basic Pension

In the 1980',China' urban employees' basic endowment insurances system started to overall planed by county(city)government;In the 1990',China' pension insurance system should be overall planed by Province government had been proposed;In 2010,The State put forward to implement Overall planning of endowment insurance by central government.However,the overall planning process of China's basic endowment insurance is not smooth.The fundamental reason is that it is difficult to balance interests among various stakeholders.Contradictions of interests of all parties restrict the overall planning of basic pension for urban workers.Due to the differences in economic development and age structure of the population in different regions,the burden of the pension insurance system is unbalanced between different regions.The funds between regions cannot be used in coordination with each other,which shows the contradiction between the risk of depreciation of pension funds in some provinces and the increasing financial burden of supplementary pension insurance by the central government.The risk of income and expenditure of basic pension is growing.On June 13,2018,the state council officially issued the "Notice on the Establishment of the Central Adjustment System for enterprise employees' basic endowment insurance fund",decided to establish a central adjustment system for endowment insurance fund as the first step to realize the national pooling of endowment insurance,and defined the specific implementationplan of the central adjustment policy.In this context,this paper explores the redistribution effect of the central adjustment policy through the combination of theoretical analysis and simulation calculation.First of all,considering that the basic pension insurance system for urban workers in China has great differences among regions,factor analysis method was used to divide the regions according to the established indicators of factors affecting the income and expenditure function of basic pension of urban workers,and to comprehensively evaluate the operation robustness of endowment insurance system in each region,which was taken as one of the references for the sustainability analysis of the central adjustment policy of basic pension.Then,using 3% as the upper mediation ratio,we simulate the current year data to explore the redistribution effect in the process of the implementation of the central allocation policy.At the same time,we analyze the impact of the central allocation policy on the financial burden of the central and local governments from the perspective of the invariable replacement rate of pension in the process of allocation.Finally,taking this as a benchmark scheme,and comparing the redistribution effects of the central dispensing system under different levy level schemes combined with different upper-level dispensing ratios,so as to put forward corresponding policy recommendations according to the conclusions of the study.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)There are obvious differences in the stability and internal supporting factors of the endowment insurance system in 31 regions in China,among which the economic supporting role is the greatest and the system itself supporting role is the second.The path selection of the central dispensing system and the introduction of relevant supporting measures must fully consider regional differences.(2)According to the analysis of the implementation effect of the policy under the proportion of 3% of the central adjustment fund with the historical basic data,it is found that the inter-regional transfer payment realized by the central adjustment policy has a large range,which greatly reduces the operational risk of its regional endowment insurance system.By comparing the demand of financial subsidy,it is found that the implementation of thecentral adjustment policy effectively reduces the expenditure demand of the national financial subsidy,greatly reduces the financial dependence and the financial burden of the government on the operation of the system in most regions on the premise of keeping the level of pension payment unchanged,thus activating the self-balancing ability of the pension insurance system and enhancing the vitality of the system operation.(3)There is a positive effect between the improvement of basic pension collection level and the effective play of inter-regional redistribution function of the central adjustment system.With the increase of regional levy level,the redistribution of the central dispensing system has been expanded,and the implementation effect has been better.More provinces have achieved self-balance of basic pension income and expenditure,and the stability of the system has been further improved.(4)Setting a reasonable upper solution ratio is an important prerequisite to promote the effective play of the redistribution function of the central adjustment system of basic pension.Based on the comprehensive analysis of the financial dependence of the old-age insurance system,the level of government financial burden and the fairness of system redistribution,it is found that the central dispensing system in the first scheme,which has slightly improved the level of collection and payment,is most reasonable to adopt the 7% proportion of fund settlement,and the system has remarkable effect and meets the fairness consideration of the central dispensing system itself.Under the second scheme,which greatly improves the levy level,it can be considered that the critical point of the redistribution fairness of the central dispensing system is 9% of the proportion of fund upper solution.If we blindly increase the proportion of settlement of the central transfer fund and expand the fund pool of the central transfer fund,excessive inter-regional transfer payments will aggravate the obstacles to the operation of the system.