Income Heterogeneous Expectations And Commodity Housing Price Fluctuations

In recent years, the price fluctuations in China’s real estate market is obvious, and the government increasingly makes the introduction of relevant policies, guiding the healthy development of the real estate market. But these policies tend to be slightly. Real estate prices and policy issues in the future have always been the focus of academic research in China.The research in this paper is put forward under this background, on the key project of housing price fluctuations as a guide. This article embarks from the perspective of revenue heterogeneous expectations,adopting adaptive expectation method to quantify income heterogeneous expectations and the housing price changes expectations, based on the 2003-2012 relevant data of 23 provinces and autonomous regions of the East and the West,setting income of residents, income heterogeneous expectations and housing price changes expectations as explanatory variables, commodity housing price as dependent variable and constructs Individual time double fixed effect variable intercept model, comprehensively analysising of income of residents, income heterogeneous expectations, expectation and mechanism of housing price fluctuation of price changes, in order to rich expectations and house price fluctuation theory research.In this paper, the main conclusions are the following:(1) In this paper, the price fluctuation model is reconstructed by the price fluctuation expectation and the price fluctuation model with the price fluctuation model under the expected income heterogeneity. Based on utility function, equilibrium of supply and demand model theory, combined with the existing literature on heterogeneous income expected research, the paper introduces the variables of price fluctuations, and intergates the original theoretical model, qualitatively analysising of heterogeneous income expectations, changes in house prices expected promotion to the commercial housing prices.(2) Based on the 2003-2012 relevant data of 23 provinces and autonomous regions of the East and the West, the paper constructs the spatital model, comparing with the rational expectation method, and draws the adaptive expectations estimation equation has a better fitting effect. The significance of the research of adaptive expectation method between expectation and price fluctuations is indicated.(3) The greater change of resident income, income heterogeneous expectations, housing price changing expectations, the higher of housing price will be. Among them, housing price changing expectations have a more dramatic effect on house price fluctuations relative to resident income and income heterogeneous expectations.(4) The coefficient of fixed effects in the east, western regions are obviously different, and there is big gap in the base price of the east and the west. Seriously unbalanced development of regional real estate market is obvious. If we want to achieve relatively balanced development between the western and eastern in a short period of time, we must increase the investment in the infrastructure constru ction in the western area and improve the income inequality between groups of different areas, public income of sectors and housing information, in order to reduce the income gap and the degree of heterogeneous expectations of market participants, thus achieve the purpose of reducing house price volatility and housing prices.(5) The lagging and discontinuous effect of the government macroeconomic regulation and control policy stimulates the volatility of income heterogeneous expectations and housing price, thereby promoting rising home prices.