Empirical Study On Commodity Housing Price Based On Spatial Economic Theory

In recent years, the real estate industry in our country is developing more and more rapidly, also housing price rises quickly year after year. The prosperity and development of the real estate industry play an essential role in economic growth, while the expansion of real estate price will affect the development of national economy and social stability. Based on the new situation of the real estate market, this article introduces the spatial econometrics theory to analyze the spatial correlation of housing price among cities and effects of the housing price under the spatial influence. The conclusions provide references for government's macro regulations. This paper mainly includes as follows:I.The paper summarizes the documents of housing price across the domestic and overseas, introduces the theory of spatial econometric model, this article analyzes influence factors of housing price at micro and macro aspects and classify geographical position factor to the macro level as well. Also, these influence factors will be boiled down to the supply level and the demand level, then select the effects of the commodity housing price.II.This article selects eight cities around Beijing to survey the commodity housing price to study the Moran 's I index of this sample, and the Moran' s I is 0.2796. It indicates that there exists spatial dependence among the commodity housing price. Also it comes to the conclusion that the space factor is an important aspect to the commodity housing price.III.The thesis establishes a reasonable spatial lag model with Matlab spatial econometrics of the panel data of eight cities around Beijing from 1998 to 2009 and estimates parameters to obtain the main effects of housing price, including urban per capita disposable income (IC), urban population (POP), per capita residential area (RH) and land price (PL). It concludes that the region geography is an essential factor for the commodity housing price.IV.Granger causality test verification by between cities the direction of the commodity residential house price impact and found Beijing (BJ) to Tianjin (TJ), Shijiazhuang (SJZ), Shenyang (SY), Changchun (CC), Jinan (JN) existing one-way Granger causality. This explains Beijing commodity housing price can cause these urban housing price changes, this result is also reasonable. This also explains why the price of Beijing commodity housing in the city is in the leader position to some extent.Finally, on base of the conclusion of this thesis, further commodity residential market suggestions could be made.