Comprehensive Evaluation And Prediction Of The Sustainable Development In Construction Industry In Western China From 2004 To 2013

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has been rapidly developed. The construction industry, as an important production sector, also enters a good time for development. On one hand, with the further implementation of Western Development strategy, developments of construction industry in western regions are accelerating. On the other hand, energy consumption and environmental pollution problems have also become increasingly prominent, and the level of production technology is relatively low. Therefore, it is of great significance to examine how to change the development mode of and how to achieve sustainable development in construction industry in western China.There are many factors that can affect sustainable development of the construction industry. This study analyzes the economic, social, resource, environmental and technical factors in specific. Based on the principles and methods established by the index system, the author uses interpretative structural modeling method to establish the index system for sustainable development in construction industry, and determines eight input and output indicators for evaluation. Then, the author selects the data envelopment analysis according to the relevant index data in the China Statistical Yearbook, and calculates the sustainable development of construction industry in 12 provinces and autonomous regions in western China from 2004 to 2013 to get their sustainable development efficiency and comprehensive ranking. At last, the author analyzes the reasons that hinders effective development, improves the non-effective units, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for future sustainable development of construction industry.This thesis studies the overall construction industry in western China. According to the trend characteristics of each index data, the author predicts data by Exponential Smoothing and grey prediction model, and calculates and analyzes the overall sustainable development of the whole construction industry in western regions in the future with data envelopment model. The results show that not all the construction industries in western China achieve sustainable development, and there is a large room for improvement.Starting from the perspective of sustainable development and taking into consideration all possible factors, this study analyzes the sustainable development of the construction industry in western China from 2004 to 2013 in a comprehensive way based on the statistical data, and predicts the sustainable development level of construction industry according to index data. The results are objective and accurate, and the predictions are reasonable.