Research On The Price Fluctuations And Transmission Of Chinese Bean Products

Since 2004, China has been the world’s largest soybean importer, in recent years,more than 80% of the soybean consumption comes from imports. With the improvement of people’s living standards, soybean demand will continue to increase, while domestic soybean acreage showing a shrinking phenomenon, leading to dependence on foreign soybeans continues to increase. Product price volatility exacerbated by the soybean industry chain, which not only increases the risk of business-related enterprises, but also greatly affected the healthy development of China’s soybean industry and food security.Compared with the import of domestic soybean prices, soybean prices are too high,uncompetitive soybean processing enterprises and feed companies are trying to buy soybean imports, resulting in the development of China’s soybean industry struggling.With the development of aquaculture to increase demand for soybeans, soybean prices outside our country’s over-reliance on the price increased risk of downstream processing business risk. Therefore, the price volatility of soybean industrial chain and transmission of great importance and necessity.Based on X- 12 seasonal adjustment method to seasonal adjustment of soybean industrial chain related products, found in soybeans and soybean meal price presents obvious seasonal, and irregular component showed that the soybean and soybean meal have been stronger unpredictable and uncertain factors, these factors increase the probability of price fluctuations. Also use the HP filter method, the long-term trend of soybeans and the soybean meal price, and price fluctuation cycle. The fluctuation cycle length, there is a big difference, it follows that the price of both conduction may be asymmetric.In order to further study the industrial chain price conduction is symmetrical, using stationarity test, johansen cointegration test and causality test, impulse response function and other methods, respectively to test empirically the soybean meal and soybean oil industry chain. Test results showed that soybean meal industry chain price conduction,asymmetric time asymmetry and strength between the industrial chain price conduction shows the characteristics of middle to both sides of the transmission, the soybean meal and soybean prices in the long term has a reverse effect. The reasons for this phenomenon is caused by short- and long-term transfer price is not consistent. Soybean industry chain price conduction is asymmetric, including delivery time is not symmetric and asymmetric transfer strength, conduction characteristics from downstream to upstream areas between the industrial chain, and the price of soybean oil prices have reverse conduction effect.Complete industry chain of soybean price fluctuations is relatively complex, and the conduction of food safety and health management in our country in the future there is a big threat.Therefore, this article suggested that relevant enterprises to improve the attention of the research on soil moisture and the use of futures hedging, always focus on the spot market, give full play to the role of futures market risk aversion, for the enterprise own management costs, to prevent the occurrence of large losses due to price fluctuations. At the same time, we suggest that policy makers can attach importance to the price fluctuation and the asymmetry characteristics of conduction, targeted formulate relevant industrial policies, to better maintain the healthy development of soybean industry.