| Maize is one of three major staple foods with the largest planting area and the highest yield after 2012,respectively accounted for 32.5%of the grain planting area and 35.6%of the total grain output in 2016(China rural statistical yearbook,2017).Soybean is important grain and oilseed crop,also an important source of plant protein.Our country's basic national conditions with 1.4 billion people determines that the main food supply must depend on domestic supply,Central government conference on rural work in 2013 and No.1 file in 2014 introduce the target of "self-sufficiency in grain,absolute security in rations".As far as maize is concerned,it should be made sure that it is basically self-sufficient.Soybean is important food and oilseed crop,and also an important source of plant protein and of income for farmers in the main producing areas.Therefore,to keep the reasonable income and stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain,stabilize the food security level of the country becomes more and more important in the context of urbanization and rapid industrialization.At the same time,maize and soybean are important sources of feed and industrial raw materials,in 2017,maize used for industry and feed accounts for respectively 62.6%and 29.7%of total consumption,soybean used for squeezing accounted for 85.4%of total consumption(World Grain Council,2017),the price fluctuations of the subject is of great importance to the downstream industry chain.Under the circumstances of increase of import volume and completion of futures market,international markets for maize and soybean become important factor for the formation of domestic corn and soybean,and also become elevant policy variables.Therefore,to scientifically evaluate the effects of corn and soybean intervention policy on domestic market and to get rational knowledge from comparative reference will be,theoretically and practically,importan for maize and soybean market reforms in the future.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:Content 1:Analysis of domestic and world maize and soybean market and the effect of policy intervention on domestic maize and soybean marketTo understand how government policy interventions affect the spatial transmission of prices,the main policy interventions in the domestic corn and soybean markets during the study period are divided into four phases:In the first phase(relative liberalization period),the corn and soybean markets were relatively liberalized and government intervention was less.China joined the WTO in 2001,canceled the quota management of soybeans and implemented a single import tariff of 3%;the policy of eliminating the protective price of corn in most provinces,and the implementation of tariff quota management in 2002,the import tariff within the quota was 1%.With an additional 65%,after 2004,the tariff quota is 7.2 million tons per year.In the second phase(the period of trade policy intervention),with the rise of food prices worldwide,in 2007,the country began to sell corn,rice and wheat stocks.Due to the domestic and international spreads,domestic traders began to export,to ensure domestic The food supply and prices are sTable.Since December 20,2007,the export tax rebates for 84 types of raw grain and flour products such as wheat,rice,rice,corn and soybean have been cancelled.From January 1 to December 31,2008,Wheat,corn,rice,rice,soybeans and other raw grains and their milling products are subject to temporary export tariffs ranging from 5%to 25%.At the same time,the three grain commodities of wheat flour,corn flour and rice flour are related to the food system of 21 tax codes.Powder implementation of export quota license management.The third stage(the implementation of the temporary storage policy period),in October 2008,in order to protect the interests of soybean growers,the state introduced the temporary storage and storage policy of soybeans;in 2009,with the new corn market,the downward pressure on domestic corn prices increased The problem of difficult to sell corn,the country has launched a temporary corn storage plan.The price is formed by the market.The relationship between supply and demand depends on the market regulation.Producers are sold along the market and encourage various market entities to enter the market independently.The fourth stage(the temporary purchase and storage policy was abolished,and the target price reform period was implemented).In 2014,the Central Document No.1 clearly stated that "the pilot project for the target price subsidy for soybeans and Xinjiang cotton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia will be launched,and pilot projects for target price insurance for agricultural products such as grain and pigs will be explored.The trial of marketing loan for the main scale of grain production has opened the prelude to the target price reform;in 2016,the policy of temporary acquisition and storage of corn was abolished,and the policy of market acquisition and subsidy was implemented.Content 2:Price change of domestic and world price for maize and soybean and effecst of policy change on their variations.To analyze the characteristics of domestic corn and soybean prices during policy liberalization,trade policy interventions,implementation of temporary collection policies,and target price reforms.The study found that international corn price fluctuations are more frequent and more volatile than domestic corn prices;international corn has a long-term price advantage over domestic corn,but with the advancement of domestic corn market reform,the price advantage has gradually narrowed and reversed;corn temporary The implementation of the policy of purchasing and storage played the role of supporting the market and stabilized the fluctuation of prices.After the implementation of the target price reform,the domestic corn price fluctuations increased significantly compared with the previous period.During the period of policy liberalization and trade policy intervention,the domestic soybean price trend was basically consistent with the international soybean price trend.During the implementation of the temporary purchasing and storage policy period,the domestic soybean price was steadily increased due to the temporary increase in the temporary storage price;After the target price reform of "market pricing,price-complement separation",domestic soybean prices gradually declined to converge on international soybean prices.Content 3:Volatility for international and domestic maize price during policy change implemented in ChinaThis section mainly studies the effect of policy intervention on the transmission of international corn and soybean prices to the domestic market:after the implementation of trade intervention,the degree of integration between China and the US corn market has declined,and the implementation of policies has inhibited the transmission of international prices to the domestic market.The implementation of the temporary storage policy has different effects on the impact of international corn prices on domestic transmission under different mechanisms;after the implementation of target price reform,the integration between international corn market and domestic corn market declines,possibly because of the diversification of the corn import market from the United States.The decrease in imports is related.There is a volatility spillover effect between the Dalian Futures Exchange(DCE)and the Chicago Board of Trade(CBOT)corn market.After the target price reform,the degree of correlation between the DCE and CBOT markets has increased.As far as soybeans are concerned,the degree of market integration in the Chinese and US soybean markets has declined after the implementation of trade policies,temporary storage policies and target price reforms.Whether it is the spot market or the futures market,there is a cointegration relationship between Chinese soybean prices and world soybean prices.Compared with the corn market,the Chinese soybean market is a relatively open market.Soybean imports only implement very low tariff measures and there are no quota restrictions.In recent years,with the increase in soybean imports,the Chinese soybean market is basically integrated with the world soybean market.of.In the stage of trade intervention policy,there is still a cointegration relationship between China's soybean price and world soybean price,indicating that the implementation of this policy has not blocked the transmission of world soybean prices to the Chinese soybean market;while in the temporary storage policy stage,China's soybean price and the world The dynamic correlation coefficient of soybean price decreased significantly.The implementation of temporary storage policy undermined the transmission relationship between world soybean price and Chinese soybean price,and inhibited the transmission of world soybean price to the Chinese market.In the target price reform stage,soybean was implemented.The policy of "price separation and separation",the government does not directly intervene in price,the dynamic correlation coefficient increases significantly,and after the implementation of the target price reform policy,the transmission relationship between world soybean prices and Chinese soybean prices increases.Content 4:Policy changes and their effects on transmission of world price for maize and soybean to domestic market.During the period of world grain crisis,The government cancelled export rebate for grain and its products such as wheat,rice,maize and soybean since Dec 20,2007 and implemented temporary export tax on these grains with rate from 5%to 25%from Jan.1st 2008 to Dec 31st.Since July 1st,2009,Chinese government again cancelled temporary export tax on wheat,rice,soybean and continuously implemented temporary purchase policy and target price policy.This part mainly study the effect of these policy changes on transmission of world price for maize and soybean to domestic market,and whether the implementation of target price policy,which make domestic market lose government support,gear domestic market towards world market which reduce domestic price and ultimately affect peasants planting decision and sTable development of maize and soybean development.We get the following conclusion by studying the above-mentioned three contents:first,trade intervention policy stabilized domestic maize price,but world soybean price can completely transmitted to domestic market,which make domestic soybean increase sharply.During the period of implementation of temporary policy,price for domestic maize rise steadily and world maize price show consecutive rise-fall.Price for domestic maize and soybean drop quickly after implementing target price reform and closely to world maize price,and price inversion disappeared.In some cases,domestic price is lower than world price for rise of sea freight rate and appreciation of U.S dollar. |
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