The Research On The Trade Potential Of China’s Agricultural Products

Since China joined the WTO, its agricultural trade has entered a stage of rapid development. However, the deficit of the agricultural trade is simultaneously increasing with the increase of value of trade, combined with more trade barriers that have been used to protect their domestic market, which made China’s agricultural trade suffer a series of problems. Under the grim background and environment, there is of great significance to do a research on the trade potential of China agricultural products with its major trading partners.This paper first analyzed current situation of China’s agricultural trade from three aspects: trade scale, trade commodity structure, the direction of trade geography, getting some problems and laws as follows: the trade deficit is getting more serious, and the trade commodity structure and geographical orientation are both too intensive, especially for the export. China exports laborintensive agricultural products most and to Asian markets most intensive. Subsequently, there went on with an empirical analysis of factors influencing China’s agricultural products based on gravity model, and then measured the potential value of agricultural trade of 37 trade partners, finally analyzed the type of their own trade potential. The results showed that: the trade potential of China’s agricultural products to 12 partners belonged to giant type, including India, South Korea, France, Australia, etc. 11 partners belonged to pioneering type, including Singapore, Thailand, Russia, Brazil, etc. 14 countries belonged to recreating type including Japan, Hong Kong, the United States, etc. The reason can be explained that the trade partners with a short geographical distance to China and with a high GDP value will be able to get more argricultural trade value. Besides, being a member of APEC will also be an advantage.Regarding to the status quo and potential value above, there are several suggestions from four perspectives put forward. China should strengthen its own economy, join in the trade organization actively, and sign more preferential trade agreement. Implement the "export market diversification" policy about the agricultural products: Maintain the agricultural market share of developed nations including Japan, Hong Kong, the United States and so on. Continue expanding China’s neighboring markets, and actively develop the emerging markets with high trade potential. The enterprises to ensure the quality of agricultural products in order to increase their added value, and actively respond to trade barriers. The government should give more support to the agricultural industry, such as improving the insurance system and encouraging more on agricultural production and marketing. Only by doing these, will China’s agricultural have a sustainable development.