Research On Sustainability Of Social Endowment Insurance Fund For Urban Workers In Jiangsu Province And Countermeasures

Due to the three baby booms in China and the family planning in the 1980s,the age structure of China's population has changed drastically,showing a typical "inverted pyramid"type.In addition,the basic pension insurance has changed from a "dual-track system" to a"merger pension" and other factors,the sustainability of China's pension balance will be seriously challenged.In order to maintain social stability and ensure the quality of the people's retirement life,the gap between pension income and expenditure become a major problem to be solved urgently.At present,the national basic pension insurance fund has not been nationally planned,and there are huge differences in population structure and economic strength among the provinces.This article mainly predicts the income and expenditure gap of the Jiangsu pension insurance fund in the next 30 yearsIn this paper,the logistic model is used to predict the number of urban employees insured and retired in Jiangsu Province,and based on this,the pension income and expenditure model of Jiangsu Province is established.By establishing the pension income and expenditure model,it is found that:When the pension replacement rate is 57%,the pension in Jiangsu Province can barely reach the breakeven.When the replacement rate reaches 62%,the cumulative gap in 2048 will reach 3.5276 trillion yuan.When the government pays attention to improving its own management and investment level when making up such gaps,and can stabilize the annualized pension investment rate of return at 19.52%,it can make up the above-mentioned gaps.