Prediction Of Land Use Change In Gongyi City

Land use and land cover change is a comprehensive reflection of the process of social and economic development, by natural factors, social factors and economic factors of multiple factors restrict, showed obvious regional and comprehensive.It reflects the most direct interaction between human and nature. As a result, it has become one of the hotspots in the international academic research. Because the process of land use change is complex, it is essential to build simplified and abstract land use model, which plays an irreplaceable role in understanding the process,mechanism and future trends of land use changes. Combined with the characteristics,laws and trends of past and future land use spatial pattern change, we can better understand the process and mechanism of land use change and provide scientific basis for land management departments to adjust land policies timely, which can promote more reasonable land use and achieve the purpose of sustainable utilization of land resources.With the development of society and economy, each area of our country is facing different levels of population, resources and environment problems, while the eastern region is particularly serious. Therefore it is important and realizable for us to research the LUCC.This thesis is taking Gongyi city as the research object,with the land use vector data acquired in 1990, 2000, and 2010 by remote sensing in this area, making simulation projections for the future pattern of land use change. First of all, analyze the three phase’s data to obtain various land use structure change, then through the landscape dynamic degree and comentropy study the land use change. Index of landscape pattern in the study period of change and characteristics of space in the center of analysis; the effect of inquiry study of regional natural, social and economic factors on land use pattern evolution formulated constraint conditions and types of land use transfer matrix and making appropriate atlas is calculated. On this basis, build CA-Markov model to 2020 Gongyi City land use pattern prediction, and also analyze the 2020 the characteristics of land use change. The purpose of this study is Gongyi City Land Use Status and the changing trend analysis, explore the evolution of land use pattern the formation mechanism, and applied to the CA-Markov model to simulate the transfer rules are formulated, then the future land use pattern simulation and prediction. The conclusions ofthis paper include:(1) During the study period of 1990-2010, the land use structure of Gongyi changed significantly. Urban and rural construction land is increasing, urban and rural construction uses the expansion, will inevitably lead to dominated by arable land area of agricultural land is substantially reduced; at the same time, Lin, grassland overall presented growth,traffic land increased significantly, water area decreased; 20 years Gongyi overall land use information entropy and equilibrium degree showed a trend of gradual improvement,information entropy of the size of the space distribution and the overall showing a distribution from the center outward gradually decreased.(2) The overall landscape pattern in the region tends to diversification, landscape fragmentation in the gradually deepening. Overall, the landscape pattern of urban and rural construction with the role of cultivated land and the dominant patch is still evident,but with the degree of landscape fragmentation deepened gradually, the role of dominant patch decreased. With the aggravation of human disturbance and landscape patch shape is more complex, urban rural residential land due to contiguous development trend of concentration increased.(3) From 1990 to 2010, Gongyi City of cultivated land and construction land conversion is the most active, the main source of urban and rural construction land conversion is dominated by arable land of agricultural land. After a large increase in forest and grassland changes smoothly, reduce the water area, along the beach to farmland.(4) The slope, the administrative center and the traffic influence of land use pattern.Most of the urban and rural construction land are distributed in the lower slope, closer to the distance from the administrative centers and transport routes within the scope and the administrative center and transportation of construction land has a strong adsorption force;in low gradient, away from the administrative center and near the road area, the area of cultivated land is steepest ascent trend; planning factors delineation of the region of the future Gongyi City permit and restrict the construction and be strictly protected basic farmland, in the formulation of the rules of the conversion of land conversion settings corresponding permitted and restricted conditions.(5) To land use type conversion matrix area and suitability image as the transformation rules, using CA Markov model simulated 2010 Gongyi City land use pattern, and the simulation graph and 2010 the actual land use pattern for verification and comparison, the simulation results were precision test shows the Kappa index is 0.7944,description model is consistent with the actual, can satisfy the need to predict, then add analysis of constraints and constraint programming forecast 2020 land use pattern,simulation results show Gongyi City in 2020 the land use type changed significantly.(6) Construction land of Gongyi City in 2020 still maintain growth, encroachment on cultivated land still exist, mainly concentrated in the building occupancy and ecological restoration and other, but due to the influence by the policy, adjustment of land use structure tends to be stable that plays a positive role in guiding the implementation of relevant policies and regulations of land resources sustainable development.